To test Football Mogul 16's improved drafting AI, we ran several simulations of the upcoming 2016 NFL Draft. These are the ratings for the top college players going into the draft...
... and here is one simulation of the 1st round:
... and another simulation:
... and another:
As you can see, there is no single prediction for the 2016 NFL Draft. Team needs change over the season (as does their draft position) and college players improve or decline in the rankings (because the Football Mogul 16 aging model affects all players, including college players).
Note: New England forfeited their 1st-round pick because of Deflategate.
Showing posts with label Football Mogul. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football Mogul. Show all posts
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Five Reasons You SHOULDN'T Buy Football Mogul 16
| Update: We have fixed the problems with Windows 10 and Windows XP that are described below! |
1. You are Running Windows XP
We weren't able to test Football Mogul 16 on multiple Windows XP systems. We aren't specifically aware of any problems, but if you encounter any, please post them to the Football Mogul bug report forum.2. You are Running Windows 10
We are not the only software publisher to encounter serious problems with Windows 10 (an operating system that is supposed to be "compatible with your existing software").The first problem is that Windows 10 is likely to complain that we are an "unknown publisher" (even though we just renewed our certificate). This document might help with that problem.
We are also getting some users reporting that Football Mogul 16 simply won't run on Windows 10. Unfortunately, we haven't been able to replicate this problem on our own computers.
This is a high priority, so we will have this fixed as soon as possible (my best guess would be next week: September 21st-25th).
3. You're Waiting for Improvements to Historical Seasons
There are problems with the historical databases used in Football Mogul. For example, if you start the game in 1970, ten teams have fictional kickers that were created by our database tool (because of missing kicker data from 1970 and/or missing stats that they accumulated in the 1950s and 1960s).![]() |
| Football Mogul in 1970: The top 19 kickers are real; the bottom 10 never existed. |
4. You Wanted a New Interface
We didn't create a new background skin for Football Mogul 16. Instead, we tweaked the "autumn" skin that was available in Football Mogul 2014, and we are also including the "winter" skin that was introduced with Football Mogul 15.
|
|
5. You Would Rather Spend Your Money on Baseball Mogul
It seems like half the comments about Football Mogul sound something like this:"Football Mogul would be great if you just invested as much effort into it as you have into Baseball Mogul."The other half sound like this:
"I love Baseball Mogul! Please stop wasting time on Football Mogul."The second comment more closely reflects reality. Baseball Mogul is our best product and the one that pays my salary.
However, I'm a huge football fan and I love playing Football Mogul. So I want to continue to improve the game and fix problems that you are kind enough to point out. And my brain needs a break from Baseball Mogul every summer anyway (this is what led to the creation of Masters of the Gridiron).
Football Mogul does pay most of Connor's salary, and it's a product where he is able to do most of work (updating rosters and ratings, reading and collecting bug reports, and regressing bug fixes). And we like having Connor around. He's better with customer support than my wife (Dee) and makes it possible for me to primarily focus on Baseball Mogul.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Football Mogul 16 Preview
There's not a lot to see this year, as most of our work has been under the hood. One new feature is that you can now save and resume the game during Play-By-Play Mode (just as you can in Baseball Mogul).
That means you will no longer be seeing any of these messages:
We've also added two options to the Calendar Page: Point Spread and Over-Under, to give you a better idea of your odds before each game (and to let you know if you covered the spread).
You can now also see each team's record against the spread. In one replay, the 1985 Bears went 13-3 (compared to 15-1 in real life). But they were only 8-8 against the spread.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Football Mogul 16 Cheat Keys
We added some "Cheat Keys" to Football Mogul 16, to help us with testing the in-game AI.
However, there's no reason you can't use them while playing the game. Maybe you want to make the game situation more interesting. Or perhaps you disagree with a play call, or found a bug, and you want to fix a "mistake" caused by the computer.
However, there's no reason you can't use them while playing the game. Maybe you want to make the game situation more interesting. Or perhaps you disagree with a play call, or found a bug, and you want to fix a "mistake" caused by the computer.
Note: The Away Team is always displayed on the left side of the Play-By-Play screen. |
Saturday, September 12, 2015
2015 NFL Projections
Teams are listed by division; rankings are for the entire NFL (out of 32 teams).
Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2015 NFL schedule using Football Mogul 16. For example, the Colts are projected to win more games than the Patriots, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Colts play in a weaker division.
Items of note:
The AFC North is the strongest division, with 3 teams ranked in the top 10 (and the most likely division to send 3 teams to the playoffs).
All four NFC South teams are coming off losing seasons, and their struggles will probably continue.
Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2015 NFL schedule using Football Mogul 16. For example, the Colts are projected to win more games than the Patriots, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Colts play in a weaker division.
|
|
Items of note:
The AFC North is the strongest division, with 3 teams ranked in the top 10 (and the most likely division to send 3 teams to the playoffs).
All four NFC South teams are coming off losing seasons, and their struggles will probably continue.
Monday, August 18, 2014
Football Mogul 15 Launches September 5th
Football Mogul 15 will go on sale at SportsMogul.com on September 5th, the day after the start of the NFL season.
Leading up to the release, here's an example of the new Scouting Report:
The big change in this year's version is a switch from a stat-based simulation engine to one based on ratings. For example, in the past, you could pretty much only compare receivers according to their "Receiving" rating -- which was based primarily on projected Receiving Yards for the upcoming season.
This year, we have 26 different ratings for each player, with the ability to edit the ratings directly (instead of trying to get the desired results by editing stats).
Leading up to the release, here's an example of the new Scouting Report:
The big change in this year's version is a switch from a stat-based simulation engine to one based on ratings. For example, in the past, you could pretty much only compare receivers according to their "Receiving" rating -- which was based primarily on projected Receiving Yards for the upcoming season.
This year, we have 26 different ratings for each player, with the ability to edit the ratings directly (instead of trying to get the desired results by editing stats).
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Adjusting Rookie Talent Levels (Football Mogul)
Football Mogul 2014 has a new feature that lets you adjust the talent level, the talent distribution, and the improvement potential for each of the 15 position types in the game.
This is implemented by the addition of a file called DraftTalent.txt, located in the same folder with FB2K14.exe. If you have trouble finding this folder, you can choose "Open Game Folder" from the Help Menu.
DraftTalent.txt includes instructions, but I will include them again here for convenience.
The first 15 lines of DraftTalent.txt look like this:
0, 0, 0, // RUNNING_BACK
-30, 0, 50, // FULLBACK
-50, 0, 0, // TIGHT_END
-10, 0, 0, // WIDE_RECEIVER
30, 0, 0, // TACKLE
50, 0, 0, // GUARD
70, 0, 0, // CENTER
-40, 0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_END
-60, 0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_TACKLE
-30, 0, 0, // LINEBACKER
0, 0, 0, // CORNERBACK
0, 0, 0, // SAFETY
0, 0, 0, // KICKER
0, 0, 0, // PUNTER
Each line refers to a position (shown at the end of the line, after the '//'). Football Mogul actually ignores all text after '//'. The position names are only there so humans know which line refers to which position. What Football Mogul does care about is the line order. The first line will always modify QB talent, then next line is for RBs, then FBs, and so on.
For each position:
First number = base talent level
Second number = talent level variation
Third number = "potential" (i.e. the difference between "Overall" and "Peak")
The default value is 0. A positive number indicates an increase. A negative number indicates a decrease.
Example #1: Your amateur draft has 10 QBs with the following Overall/Peak talent levels:
60/70, 63/73, 65/75, 67/77, 69/79, 70/80, 71/81, 73/83, 75/85, 77/87, 80/90
Increasing the first number will increase the entire talent pool, as in this example:
65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 74/84, 75/85, 76/86, 78/88, 80/90, 82/92, 85/95
Increasing the second number will increase the talent level variation (while the average remains the same):
55/65, 59/69, 62/72, 65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 75/85, 78/88, 81/91, 85/95
Increasing the third number will increase the amount that each player improves after the draft:
60/75, 63/78, 65/80, 67/82, 69/84, 70/85, 71/86, 73/88, 75/90, 77/92, 80/95
For overall talent level, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* equals a 1-point change in the "Overall" rating.
For talent level variation, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* increases the distance between the worst and best player by 1.
Note that college players are generated for the draft at the end of each regular season (i.e. at the start of the playoffs). So, in order to see your changes to DraftTalent.txt reflected in the game, you will need to make any edits (and save the new file) before the first playoff game.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Pre-Season Power Rankings (by Football Mogul 2014)
Teams are listed by division; rankings are for the entire NFL (out of 32 teams).
Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2013 NFL schedule.
For example, the Patriots are projected to win more games than the Broncos, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Patriots play in a much weaker division.
Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2013 NFL schedule.
For example, the Patriots are projected to win more games than the Broncos, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Patriots play in a much weaker division.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Football Mogul Predicts the 2013 Season
Predictions by Football Mogul 2014 for the upcoming season (100 seasons simulated):
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Monday, September 2, 2013
A Note On Tackles
"Tackles" have been an official stat since 2001, but there is still some confusion about what the term means. For example, CBS Sports and NFL.com both show Luke Kuechly with 164 Tackles in 2012. But Pro-Football-Reference only gives him 103 tackles.
This is because CBS and the NFL are adding together "Solo Tackles" and "Assisted Tackles", but Pro-Football-Reference is only counting "Solo Tackles" (with a column next to it for "Assisted Tackles").
ESPN adds more confusion. Instead of a column called "tackles", they have a column called COMB (for "combined") and one called TOTAL. This doesn't clarify anything, because "total" and "combined" are essentially synonyms, both meaning to "add up".
(This convention even confuses ESPN's own writers. Their Fantasy Projection for Kuechly mentions "200 total tackles" when it is clear that what they really mean, according to their own nomenclature, is "200 combined tackles".)
So... for Football Mogul, we are sticking to the NFL's official definition:
![]() |
| Luke Kuechly had 103 "tackles" last year. Or did he? |
ESPN adds more confusion. Instead of a column called "tackles", they have a column called COMB (for "combined") and one called TOTAL. This doesn't clarify anything, because "total" and "combined" are essentially synonyms, both meaning to "add up".
(This convention even confuses ESPN's own writers. Their Fantasy Projection for Kuechly mentions "200 total tackles" when it is clear that what they really mean, according to their own nomenclature, is "200 combined tackles".)
So... for Football Mogul, we are sticking to the NFL's official definition:
[A tackle is] recorded when a defensive player makes contact with an offensive player, forcing him to go to the ground. Tackles can be recorded as either "solo tackles" or "assisted tackles".In other words, "tackles" includes both "solo tackles" and "assisted tackles". For every tackle that occurs in the simulation, Football Mogul either awards a "solo tackle" to one defensive player, or an "assisted tackle" to each of two different players.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Football Mogul 2014 Sneak Peak
Football Mogul 2014 will be released on Wednesday, September 4th.
Leading up to that launch, here's a quick look at the updated Scouting Report in the game:
Leading up to that launch, here's a quick look at the updated Scouting Report in the game:
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Super Bowl MVP Predictions
![]() |
| Photo by Keith Allison |
Odds are that it will go to a quarterback. But there's a 48.7% chance of someone else taking home the MVP trophy.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Football Mogul Predicts Super Bowl XLVI
It's that time of year again. Another Super Bowl between the Giants and Pats. To predict the result, we used Football Mogul to simulate the game 100,000 times.
Note: this year's version of Football Mogul is 100% free. No time limits. No strings attached. Please download it. :)Bottom line: Pats have a 60.78% chance of winning. The most likely score is 31-27.
Here are the average results for each team:
Sunday, January 15, 2012
The NFL's "Worst" Pass Defenses
In tonight's 45-7 drubbing of the Broncos by the Patriots, I have to admit that the 2nd half was pretty boring.
Here's what I did see that was interesting:
CBS put up a graphic showing that the best teams in the NFL this year also had the worst pass defenses. This wasn't the first time I had seen this stat trotted out as "proof" that the Packers, Saints and Pats have horrible pass defenses.
Here's what I did see that was interesting:
CBS put up a graphic showing that the best teams in the NFL this year also had the worst pass defenses. This wasn't the first time I had seen this stat trotted out as "proof" that the Packers, Saints and Pats have horrible pass defenses.
Team
| Won | Lost | Pass Yards Allowed Per Game | NFL Rank |
Green Bay Packers
|
15 | 1 | 301.2 | 32nd |
New England Patriots
|
13 | 3 | 283.0 | 31st |
New Orleans Saints
|
11 | 5 | 266.7 | 30th |
Well ... duh.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
2011 Offensive Line Rankings
Based on career stats for all active linemen (adjusted for age, and weighted for recent performance and injuries) here are ratings for the current offensive lines for all 32 NFL teams.
For individual ratings for each offensive lineman, you can download this year's version of Football Mogul, which is 100% free (no time limits or registration required).
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
2010 Offensive Line Rankings
Based on stats from the last 12 seasons (yes, Matt Birk has been in the league since 1998), here are ratings for
the current offensive lines for all 32 NFL teams.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Wes Welker For MVP
![]() |
| Photo by Mike Gil |
Monday, November 16, 2009
Belichick Made The Right Call
![]() |
| Photo by Keith Allison |
Last night, near the end of an important game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, the New England Patriots faced 4th-and-2 on their own 28-yard-line. The Patriots were ahead by 6 points, with 2 minutes and 8 seconds left on the clock. Conventional wisdom said the Patriots should punt the ball, to force Manning to try to drive the length of the field for a game-winning score. Instead, the Patriots went for it and failed to convert. The Colts went on to win.
Commentators are already arguing about whether Coach Belichick showed too little faith in his defense, or too much faith in his offense. It has nothing do with faith. It's all about giving your team the best chance of winning. And the numbers say that Belichick made the right call.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)






















