It's that time of year again. Another Super Bowl between the Giants and Pats. To predict the result, we used Football Mogul to simulate the game 100,000 times.
Note: this year's version of Football Mogul is 100% free. No time limits. No strings attached. Please download it. :)Bottom line: Pats have a 60.78% chance of winning. The most likely score is 31-27.
Here are the average results for each team:
| New York Giants | New England Patriots | |
| Win Chance | 39.22% | 60.78% |
| Average Score | 26.9 | 30.6 |
| Most Likely Score | 27 | 31 |
| Pass Yards | 278.3 | 319.2 |
| Rush Yards | 94.2 | 99.7 |
| Pass TDs | 1.98 | 2.44 |
| Sacks (by defense) | 2.15 | 2.02 |
| Turnovers (committed) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| Interceptions (thrown) | 0.94 | 0.81 |
It's interesting that even though the Giants have a better running game, the Patriots average more rush yards. This is because they have a higher chance of being ahead in the 4th quarter, when their play-calling will favor plays that eat up the clock.
Some other interesting facts:
- The Giants have a 15.6% chance of getting 4 or more sacks. If they do, their chance of winning goes up to 67.3%.
- Tom Brady has a 47.1% chance of passing for 3 or more touchdowns. If he does, the Patriots' chance of winning goes up to 74.3%.
Conversely, if the Giants can hold Brady to less than 3 TDs, their chance to win the game goes up to 51.4%.
- Brady has a 0.47% chance of passing for 6 touchdowns (matching his performance against the Broncos in the AFC Divisional Playoffs). Amazingly, the Giants still have a 4.3% chance of winning these games.
Have more questions about the data? Drop me a line in the comments section.
2 comments:
I'm curious. What percentage of simulated outcomes was closer to the actual result than to the median result? A 3-D histogram of the results (Pats score, Giants score, frequency) would be an interesting way to view the data now that the result is known.
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