Football Mogul Predicts The 2016 NFL Season

It's that time of year again. We used the beta version of Football Mogul 17 to simulate the upcoming season 1,000 times. Projected standings are shown for each league, including average number of wins and losses for each team during the simulation. "Super Bowl Champs" shows that team's chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Football Mogul: 2016 Mock Drafts

To test Football Mogul 16's improved drafting AI, we ran several simulations of the upcoming 2016 NFL Draft. These are the ratings for the top college players going into the draft...

... and here is one simulation of the 1st round:

... and another simulation:

... and another:

As you can see, there is no single prediction for the 2016 NFL Draft. Team needs change over the season (as does their draft position) and college players improve or decline in the rankings (because the Football Mogul 16 aging model affects all players, including college players).

Note: New England forfeited their 1st-round pick because of Deflategate.

9 Random Thoughts On Deflategate

1. Even though it rhymes, "deflategate" is a boring name. We should call it "ballgate".

2. The NFL requires that balls be inflated to a pressure between 12.5 and 13.5 psi. If you inflate a ball to 13.0 psi in an 85-degree room and then take it outdoors on a 50-degree day, the pressure will drop below 12.2 psi.

3. Aaron Rodgers claims that the refs themselves actually take air out of the balls. Weird.

4. The rule specifies that the refs check the balls exactly two hours and fifteen minutes before the game. As shown above, a team could inflate the balls with hot air and just let them deflate. This would appear to not violate the rules, although one could argue that it violates the spirit of the rules.

5. "The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications" and "the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the ball attendant just prior to the start of the game." In other words, if the balls weren't properly inflated at halftime, any blame should fall on the Referee.

6. Troy Aikman has officially lost it, as proven by his absurd claim that "deflategate" is a more serious offense than "bountygate".

7. During the press conference on ESPN, Belichick came across as somewhat credible. However, when I listen to just the audio, I can hear serious stress in his voice. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on "Bill is lying". I don't think he ordered it, but he is so detail-oriented that I'm sure he was aware of the possibility that his staff might be doing something like this on a regular basis.

8. Nevertheless, I think it's unlikely we'll find any hard evidence against Brady or Belichick.

9. Regardless of how this turns out, the NFL should reduce the amount of air in the ball anyway. This would do three things:

• Increase receptions and interceptions (and decrease incompletions). This would increase offense and scoring, and also increase the excitement and drama that comes from interceptions and pick sixes. These are all good things.
• Decrease fumbles. If fumbles went down by 40%, we would see teams shifting away from "average running backs who rarely fumble" (like BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and back towards dynamic superstars (like Barry Sanders). Again, this is good for the game.
• Decrease field goals. Flatter balls are harder to kick. The NFL has been bending themselves in knots trying to cut down on field goals, from changing where to put the ball after a missed field goal to fucking up the overtime rules. It would be much easier to just deflate the balls a bit.

Football Mogul 15 Launches September 5th

Football Mogul 15 will go on sale at SportsMogul.com on September 5th, the day after the start of the NFL season.

Leading up to the release, here's an example of the new Scouting Report:

The big change in this year's version is a switch from a stat-based simulation engine to one based on ratings. For example, in the past, you could pretty much only compare receivers according to their "Receiving" rating -- which was based primarily on projected Receiving Yards for the upcoming season.

This year, we have 26 different ratings for each player, with the ability to edit the ratings directly (instead of trying to get the desired results by editing stats).

Baseball Mogul 2015 Pre-Order

We are now accepting pre-orders for Baseball Mogul 2015, which will go on sale on April 11th.

This pre-order option is limited to only 20 customers, and can be locked down by pledging $25 at the Kickstarter campaign for Masters of the Gridiron.

I admit that it's weird to use Kickstarter for Baseball Mogul, a product that is now in it's 17th version. We have always wanted to allow pre-orders of Baseball Mogul through our normal ordering system, but we aren't allowed to process a payment unless we immediately ship the product.

So, here we are, selling Baseball Mogul 2015 on Kickstarter at a whopping 28% discount, and you won't even be billed until after the Kickstarter campaign ends.

(Note also that we have added an option to pre-order both Baseball Mogul 2015 and Masters of Gridiron for $47, including free shipping inside the United States).

Making The Pro Bowl Matter

If the NFL wants to boost ratings for the Pro Bowl, they need to make it count for something.

NFL fans are serious. They will show up in sub-zero weather to root for a last-place team. But they won't bother to turn on the TV for an exhibition game that doesn't have any effect on the actual season.

The solution: Give the top draft picks to the conference that wins the Pro Bowl.

Won-Loss records would still be used to rank teams within each conference. But the Pro Bowl winner is guaranteed to get the #1 pick.

For example, this is the current draft order for the 2014 NFL draft:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
2	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	18	New York Jets (AFC)
3	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	19	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
4	Cleveland Browns (NFC)	20	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
5	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	21	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
6	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	22	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	23	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
8	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	24	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
9	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	25	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
10	Detroit Lions (NFC)	26	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
11	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	27	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
12	New York Giants (NFC)	28	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
13	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	29	New England Patriots (AFC)
14	Chicago Bears (NFC)	30	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
15	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	31	Denver Broncos (AFC)
16	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

If this rule had been in place, and the AFC had won, this would be the resulting draft order:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
2	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	18	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
3	Cleveland Browns (AFC)	19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
4	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	20	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
5	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	21	Detroit Lions (NFC)
6	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	22	New York Giants (NFC)
7	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	23	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
8	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	24	Chicago Bears (NFC)
9	New York Jets (AFC)	25	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
10	Miami Dolphins (AFC)	26	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
11	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)	27	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
12	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)	28	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
13	San Diego Chargers (AFC)	29	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
14	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)	30	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
15	New England Patriots (AFC)	31	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
16	Denver Broncos (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

And this would be the draft order if the NFC had won:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	17	Houston Texans (AFC)
2	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	18	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	19	Cleveland Browns (AFC)
4	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	20	Oakland Raiders (AFC)
5	Detroit Lions (NFC)	21	Buffalo Bills (AFC)
6	New York Giants (NFC)	22	Tennessee Titans (AFC)
7	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	23	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
8	Chicago Bears (NFC)	24	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
9	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)	25	New York Jets (AFC)
10	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)	26	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
11	Green Bay Packers (NFC)	27	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
12	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)	28	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
13	New Orleans Saints (NFC)	29	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
14	Carolina Panthers (NFC)	30	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
15	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)	31	New England Patriots (AFC)
16	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)	32	Denver Broncos (AFC)

This has the additional advantage of eliminating worries about teams "tanking". There's no point in intentionally losing games to get the #1 pick if you might drop to pick #17 after the Pro Bowl.

But, unlike some other other anti-tanking ideas, this system continues to give better picks to weaker teams, to help create parity.

Adjusting Rookie Talent Levels (Football Mogul)

Football Mogul 2014 has a new feature that lets you adjust the talent level, the talent distribution, and the improvement potential for each of the 15 position types in the game.

This is implemented by the addition of a file called DraftTalent.txt, located in the same folder with FB2K14.exe. If you have trouble finding this folder, you can choose "Open Game Folder" from the Help Menu.

DraftTalent.txt includes instructions, but I will include them again here for convenience.

The first 15 lines of DraftTalent.txt look like this:

  0,  0, 0, // QUARTERBACK
  0,  0, 0, // RUNNING_BACK
-30,  0, 50, // FULLBACK
-50,  0, 0, // TIGHT_END
-10,  0, 0, // WIDE_RECEIVER
 30,  0, 0, // TACKLE
 50,  0, 0, // GUARD
 70,  0, 0, // CENTER
-40,  0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_END
-60,  0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_TACKLE
-30,  0, 0, // LINEBACKER
  0,  0, 0, // CORNERBACK
  0,  0, 0, // SAFETY
  0,  0, 0, // KICKER
  0,  0, 0, // PUNTER

Each line refers to a position (shown at the end of the line, after the '//'). Football Mogul actually ignores all text after '//'. The position names are only there so humans know which line refers to which position. What Football Mogul does care about is the line order. The first line will always modify QB talent, then next line is for RBs, then FBs, and so on.

For each position:
First number = base talent level
Second number = talent level variation
Third number = "potential" (i.e. the difference between "Overall" and "Peak")

The default value is 0. A positive number indicates an increase. A negative number indicates a decrease.

Example #1: Your amateur draft has 10 QBs with the following Overall/Peak talent levels:
60/70, 63/73, 65/75, 67/77, 69/79, 70/80, 71/81, 73/83, 75/85, 77/87, 80/90

Increasing the first number will increase the entire talent pool, as in this example:
65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 74/84, 75/85, 76/86, 78/88, 80/90, 82/92, 85/95

Increasing the second number will increase the talent level variation (while the average remains the same):
55/65, 59/69, 62/72, 65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 75/85, 78/88, 81/91, 85/95

Increasing the third number will increase the amount that each player improves after the draft:
60/75, 63/78, 65/80, 67/82, 69/84, 70/85, 71/86, 73/88, 75/90, 77/92, 80/95

For overall talent level, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* equals a 1-point change in the "Overall" rating.
For talent level variation, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* increases the distance between the worst and best player by 1.

Note that college players are generated for the draft at the end of each regular season (i.e. at the start of the playoffs). So, in order to see your changes to DraftTalent.txt reflected in the game, you will need to make any edits (and save the new file) before the first playoff game.

Pre-Season Power Rankings (by Football Mogul 2014)

Teams are listed by division; rankings are for the entire NFL (out of 32 teams).

Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2013 NFL schedule.

For example, the Patriots are projected to win more games than the Broncos, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Patriots play in a much weaker division.

AFC Teams Power Rank New England Patriots 4 Miami Dolphins 21 New York Jets 29 Buffalo Bills 30		NFC Teams Power Rank Philadelphia Eagles 9 Dallas Cowboys 14 New York Giants 15 Washington Redskins 24
AFC North Power Rank Cincinnati Bengals 8 Baltimore Ravens 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 25		NFC North Power Rank Green Bay Packers 6 Detroit Lions 16 Chicago Bears 20 Minnesota Vikings 22
AFC South Power Rank Indianapolis Colts 7 Houston Texans 12 Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 31		NFC South Power Rank New Orleans Saints 5 Carolina Panthers 11 Atlanta Falcons 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
AFC West Power Rank Denver Broncos 2 Kansas City Chiefs 13 San Diego Chargers 28 Oakland Raiders 32		NFC West Power Rank Seattle Seahawks 1 San Francisco 49ers 3 Arizona Cardinals 18 St. Louis Rams 26

Football Mogul Predicts the 2013 Season

Predictions by Football Mogul 2014 for the upcoming season (100 seasons simulated):

AFC East Record New England Patriots 12-4 Miami Dolphins 8-8 New York Jets 6-10 Buffalo Bills 5-11		NFC East Record Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 New York Giants 8-8 Dallas Cowboys 8-8 Washington Redskins 6-10
AFC North Record Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 Baltimore Ravens 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 Cleveland Browns 5-11		NFC North Record Green Bay Packers 10-6 Detroit Lions 9-7 Chicago Bears 8-8 Minnesota Vikings 8-8
AFC South Record Indianapolis Colts 11-5 Houston Texans 9-7 Tennessee Titans 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13		NFC South Record New Orleans Saints 11-5 Carolina Panthers 10-6 Atlanta Falcons 6-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
AFC West Record Denver Broncos 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 San Diego Chargers 7-9 Oakland Raiders 3-13		NFC West Record Seattle Seahawks 13-3 San Francisco 49ers 12-4 St. Louis Rams 7-9 Arizona Cardinals 5-11

A Note On Tackles

"Tackles" have been an official stat since 2001, but there is still some confusion about what the term means. For example, CBS Sports and NFL.com both show Luke Kuechly with 164 Tackles in 2012. But Pro-Football-Reference only gives him 103 tackles.

Luke Kuechly had 103 "tackles" last year. Or did he?

This is because CBS and the NFL are adding together "Solo Tackles" and "Assisted Tackles", but Pro-Football-Reference is only counting "Solo Tackles" (with a column next to it for "Assisted Tackles").

ESPN adds more confusion. Instead of a column called "tackles", they have a column called COMB (for "combined") and one called TOTAL. This doesn't clarify anything, because "total" and "combined" are essentially synonyms, both meaning to "add up".

(This convention even confuses ESPN's own writers. Their Fantasy Projection for Kuechly mentions "200 total tackles" when it is clear that what they really mean, according to their own nomenclature, is "200 combined tackles".)

So... for Football Mogul, we are sticking to the NFL's official definition:

[A tackle is] recorded when a defensive player makes contact with an offensive player, forcing him to go to the ground. Tackles can be recorded as either "solo tackles" or "assisted tackles".

In other words, "tackles" includes both "solo tackles" and "assisted tackles". For every tackle that occurs in the simulation, Football Mogul either awards a "solo tackle" to one defensive player, or an "assisted tackle" to each of two different players.

Football Mogul 2014 Sneak Peak

Football Mogul 2014 will be released on Wednesday, September 4th.

Leading up to that launch, here's a quick look at the updated Scouting Report in the game:

The One-Ton Offensive Line?

The NFL is getting out of hand. You can't play on the line of scrimmage unless you top 350 pounds. It's making the game less fun to watch and less fun to play. And leading to more injuries. But the worst part is that high school kids around the country think they need to weigh that much for a shot at playing in Division I in college -- and to have ANY shot at playing in the pros. And the sad fact is that they are right.

Worst Call In Super Bowl History

Photo by Ed Yourdon

I realize that it's hyberbolic to call today's safety call the worst in 46 Super Bowls. But somebody needs to do it. Right now, there are thousands of people out there Googling "worst super bowl call ever", and they need to be able to find something.

Super Bowl MVP Predictions

Photo by Keith Allison

As mentioned on Sunday, we used Football Mogul to predicts the results of Super Bowl XLVI by simulating the game 100,000 times. We also recorded the MVP of each game.

Odds are that it will go to a quarterback. But there's a 48.7% chance of someone else taking home the MVP trophy.

Football Mogul Predicts Super Bowl XLVI

It's that time of year again. Another Super Bowl between the Giants and Pats. To predict the result, we used Football Mogul to simulate the game 100,000 times.

Note: this year's version of Football Mogul is 100% free. No time limits. No strings attached. Please download it. :)

Bottom line: Pats have a 60.78% chance of winning. The most likely score is 31-27.

Here are the average results for each team:

The NFL's "Worst" Pass Defenses

In tonight's 45-7 drubbing of the Broncos by the Patriots, I have to admit that the 2nd half was pretty boring.

Here's what I did see that was interesting:

CBS put up a graphic showing that the best teams in the NFL this year also had the worst pass defenses. This wasn't the first time I had seen this stat trotted out as "proof" that the Packers, Saints and Pats have horrible pass defenses.

Team	Won	Lost	Pass Yards Allowed Per Game	NFL Rank
Green Bay Packers	15	1	301.2	32nd
New England Patriots	13	3	283.0	31st
New Orleans Saints	11	5	266.7	30th

Well ... duh.

2011 Offensive Line Rankings

Based on career stats for all active linemen (adjusted for age, and weighted for recent performance and injuries) here are ratings for the current offensive lines for all 32 NFL teams. For individual ratings for each offensive lineman, you can download this year's version of Football Mogul, which is 100% free (no time limits or registration required).

Go For Two!

Photo by Keith Allison

While most New England fans are still recoiling from today's loss to the Jets, I thought I would take a moment to draw your attention to a huge error by coach Belichick that significantly reduced our chance to win the game.

2010 Offensive Line Rankings

Based on stats from the last 12 seasons (yes, Matt Birk has been in the league since 1998), here are ratings for the current offensive lines for all 32 NFL teams.

Fixing Overtime In The NFL (Revisited)

We already have a great solution to the problem of the coin flip in overtime games. Nevertheless, it has been almost four years, and we're still stuck with the old system.

After the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game (and the Colts' failed attempt to go 16-0) the argument for this change to the rules is even more compelling. If this rule had been implemented, both the Saints and the Colts would have still had something to play for in the last month of the season.

To summarize, we have two major problems:

1) The coin-flip winner has an unfair advantage in overtime.

2) Teams like the 13-0 Saints and 14-0 Colts have no incentive to win after they have clinched the top playoff spot (making any of these late-season games utterly unwatchable).

The solution is elegantly simple: automatically award the "coin flip" to the home team.

In addition to eliminating the coin flip, there are a number of other positive effects:

1) This increases the importance of home field advantage in the playoffs.

If a team like the Colts go 14-2, they get an edge if a playoff game goes to overtime (just as the home team in baseball has a strategic advantage).

2) We now know who the "home team" is in the Super Bowl. And it matters. 

This would have been pivotal this season: the Colts and Saints would continue to play hard, knowing that if they met in the Super Bowl, home-field advantage would be determined by their regular-season record. Instead, we got five unwatchable games by two teams that had nothing to play for.

3) It adds drama to the final minutes of a game, and clarifies strategy for coaches.

If you're the away team, and you're up against a good offense, you want to play for the win, not the tie, in any last-minute play calls. You go for two if you have the chance. And you go for the touchdown instead of the field goal on 4th down. More excitement, and less overtime (which tends to run into the next game, which doesn't make most football fans happy).

4) It increases attendance.

As the NFL becomes more fun to watch on TV, ticket sales are suffering. Giving the home team a bigger advantage increases the likelihood that a home-team fan will have a great experience at the stadium (by getting to see his or her team win).