9 Random Thoughts On Deflategate

1. Even though it rhymes, "deflategate" is a boring name. We should call it "ballgate".

2. The NFL requires that balls be inflated to a pressure between 12.5 and 13.5 psi. If you inflate a ball to 13.0 psi in an 85-degree room and then take it outdoors on a 50-degree day, the pressure will drop below 12.2 psi.

3. Aaron Rodgers claims that the refs themselves actually take air out of the balls. Weird.

4. The rule specifies that the refs check the balls exactly two hours and fifteen minutes before the game. As shown above, a team could inflate the balls with hot air and just let them deflate. This would appear to not violate the rules, although one could argue that it violates the spirit of the rules.

5. "The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications" and "the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the ball attendant just prior to the start of the game." In other words, if the balls weren't properly inflated at halftime, any blame should fall on the Referee.

6. Troy Aikman has officially lost it, as proven by his absurd claim that "deflategate" is a more serious offense than "bountygate".

7. During the press conference on ESPN, Belichick came across as somewhat credible. However, when I listen to just the audio, I can hear serious stress in his voice. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on "Bill is lying". I don't think he ordered it, but he is so detail-oriented that I'm sure he was aware of the possibility that his staff might be doing something like this on a regular basis.

8. Nevertheless, I think it's unlikely we'll find any hard evidence against Brady or Belichick.

9. Regardless of how this turns out, the NFL should reduce the amount of air in the ball anyway. This would do three things:

• Increase receptions and interceptions (and decrease incompletions). This would increase offense and scoring, and also increase the excitement and drama that comes from interceptions and pick sixes. These are all good things.
• Decrease fumbles. If fumbles went down by 40%, we would see teams shifting away from "average running backs who rarely fumble" (like BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and back towards dynamic superstars (like Barry Sanders). Again, this is good for the game.
• Decrease field goals. Flatter balls are harder to kick. The NFL has been bending themselves in knots trying to cut down on field goals, from changing where to put the ball after a missed field goal to fucking up the overtime rules. It would be much easier to just deflate the balls a bit.

I Miss You, Jonas Gray

As a Patriots fan, I loved watching Jonas Gray overpower the Colts in Indianapolis. On Sunday, Gray become the first running back since the Great Depression to rush for as many touchdowns as the rest of the league combined.

However, as a Patriots fan, I already miss Jonas Gray. That's because I know that he won't be here for long. Unlike Tom Brady, he's not going to retire in a Patriot's uniform. Bill Belichick doesn't keep running backs around for long (unless he can use them in the passing game, like Shane Vereen or Kevin Faulk).

Remember LeGarrette Blount? Of course you do. He also ran for four touchdowns in one game, also against the Colts. In the playoffs! Two months later he signed with the Steelers.

Belichick feels, perhaps correctly, that today's running game is about power blocking and play-calling, not about star running backs. This means that he can pick Jonas Gray off the scrap heap and turn him into a star. Belichick also knows that running backs get old fast. Put these two facts together and it means that we probably won't be seeing Jonas Gray in a Patriots uniform next year.

Jonas, I miss you already!

Football Mogul Predicts Super Bowl XLVI

It's that time of year again. Another Super Bowl between the Giants and Pats. To predict the result, we used Football Mogul to simulate the game 100,000 times.

Note: this year's version of Football Mogul is 100% free. No time limits. No strings attached. Please download it. :)

Bottom line: Pats have a 60.78% chance of winning. The most likely score is 31-27.

Here are the average results for each team:

Wes Welker For MVP

Photo by Mike Gil 

Peyton Manning was announced two days ago as the MVP for the 2009 NFL season. But yesterday, without even leaving Bob Kraft's luxury box, Wes Welker proved that he was the one who should have received the award.