|
|
So I booted up Baseball Mogul 2016 to see how it would handle this year's draft. One advantage of having a full simulation at our disposal is that I was able to simulate the draft 10,000 times and record all the results. The following table shows the most likely result of the first round (although this exact order only occurred in 131 of the 10,000 simulations). The average draft position for each player is shown below as “ADP”.
Pick
|
Team
|
Player
|
Pos
|
Age
|
Bats
|
Throws
|
Hgt
|
Wgt
|
Scouting
|
ADP
|
1
|
Phillies
|
Jason Groome
|
LHP
|
17
|
L
|
L
|
6'6"
|
220
|
40/75
|
1.61
|
2
|
Reds
|
A.J. Puk
|
LHP
|
21
|
L
|
L
|
6'7"
|
230
|
45/70
|
1.78
|
3
|
Braves
|
Nick Senzel
|
3B
|
20
|
R
|
R
|
6'1"
|
205
|
40/70
|
3.31
|
4
|
Rockies
|
Mickey Moniak
|
LF
|
18
|
L
|
R
|
6'2"
|
190
|
40/70
|
4.36
|
5
|
Brewers
|
Corey Ray
|
CF
|
21
|
L
|
L
|
5'11"
|
185
|
40/75
|
5.46
|
6
|
Athletics
|
Delvin Perez
|
SS
|
17
|
R
|
R
|
6'3"
|
165
|
45/75
|
6.26
|
7
|
Marlins
|
Riley Pint
|
RHP
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'4"
|
195
|
40/75
|
8.31
|
8
|
Padres
|
Kyle Lewis
|
RF
|
20
|
R
|
R
|
6'4"
|
195
|
35/70
|
10.86
|
9
|
Tigers
|
Matt Manning
|
RHP
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'6"
|
195
|
35/70
|
10.41
|
10
|
White Sox
|
Dakota Hudson
|
RHP
|
21
|
R
|
R
|
6'5"
|
205
|
40/65
|
11.46
|
11
|
Mariners
|
Cal Quantrill
|
RHP
|
20
|
L
|
R
|
6'3"
|
185
|
40/70
|
11.01
|
12
|
Red Sox
|
Braxton Garrett
|
LHP
|
18
|
R
|
L
|
6'3"
|
190
|
40/65
|
12.06
|
13
|
Rays
|
Blake Rutherford
|
LF
|
19
|
L
|
R
|
6'2"
|
190
|
45/70
|
10.86
|
14
|
Indians
|
Zack Collins
|
C
|
21
|
L
|
R
|
6'3"
|
220
|
40/65
|
14.16
|
15
|
Twins
|
Forrest Whitley
|
RHP
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'6"
|
250
|
40/70
|
15.21
|
16
|
Angels
|
Bryan Reynolds
|
CF
|
21
|
S
|
R
|
6'2"
|
210
|
35/70
|
16.26
|
17
|
Astros
|
Alex Kirilloff
|
CF
|
18
|
L
|
L
|
6'2"
|
195
|
40/65
|
16.06
|
18
|
Yankees
|
Kevin Gowdy
|
SP
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'4"
|
170
|
35/70
|
18.61
|
19
|
Mets
|
Will Craig
|
3B
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'3"
|
225
|
45/65
|
17.16
|
20
|
Dodgers
|
Jordan Sheffield
|
RHP
|
21
|
R
|
R
|
6'0"
|
185
|
40/70
|
18.71
|
21
|
Blue Jays
|
Buddy Reed
|
CF
|
21
|
S
|
R
|
6'4"
|
185
|
35/70
|
20.51
|
22
|
Pirates
|
Ian Anderson
|
RHP
|
18
|
R
|
R
|
6'3"
|
170
|
40/65
|
20.56
|
23
|
Cardinals
|
Cody Sedlock
|
RHP
|
20
|
R
|
R
|
6'4"
|
210
|
45/65
|
19.86
|
... and this table shows how frequently each player was taken with
one of the top 3 picks (rounded to the nearest 0.1%):
Player
|
Pos
|
Age
|
Pick #1
|
Pick #2
|
Pick #3
|
Jason Groome
|
LHP
|
17
|
50.1%
|
39.1%
|
10.6%
|
A.J. Puk
|
LHP
|
21
|
39.2%
|
45.5%
|
14.4%
|
Nick Senzel
|
3B
|
20
|
6.8%
|
10.2%
|
42.1%
|
Mickey Moniak
|
LF
|
18
|
1.4%
|
2.6%
|
11.3%
|
Corey Ray
|
CF
|
21
|
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
9.0%
|
Delvin Perez
|
SS
|
17
|
0.7%
|
0.5%
|
6.2%
|
Riley Pint
|
RHP
|
18
|
0.5%
|
0.8%
|
3.5%
|
Kyle Lewis
|
RF
|
20
|
0.2%
|
0.7%
|
|
Matt Manning
|
RHP
|
18
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
|
|
Dakota Hudson
|
RHP
|
21
|
0.3%
|
||
Cal Quantrill
|
RHP
|
20
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.4%
|
Braxton Garrett
|
LHP
|
18
|
0.3%
|
||
Blake Rutherford
|
LF
|
19
|
0.2%
|
As you can see, Baseball Mogul was
ambivalent about whether to take Puk or Groome with the first pick. Twelve years after Moneyball publicized the argument that college players
had been perennially under-valued, front offices still frequently use top
picks on high school players — so Mogul's drafting AI models that behavior.