Thursday, January 26, 2012

Super Bowl MVP Predictions

Photo by Keith Allison
As mentioned on Sunday, we used Football Mogul to predicts the results of Super Bowl XLVI by simulating the game 100,000 times. We also recorded the MVP of each game.

Odds are that it will go to a quarterback. But there's a 48.7% chance of someone else taking home the MVP trophy.

Player MVP Chance
Tom Brady (NE) 31.6%
Eli Manning (NYG) 19.7%
Wes Welker (NE) 5.9%
Rob Gronkowski (NE) 5.7%
Aaron Hernandez (NE) 4.7%
Victor Cruz (NYG) 4.6%
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 4.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) 3.4%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) 3.4%
Deion Branch (NE) 2.6%
Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG) 2.1%
Vince Wilfork (NE) 1.2%
Brandon Jacobs (NYG) 1.8%
Mario Manningham (NYG) 1.4%
Jerod Mayo (NE) 0.9%
Justin Tuck (NYG) 0.9%
Osi Umenyiora (NYG) 0.8%
Kyle Arrington (NE) 0.7%
Antrel Rolle (NYG) 0.6%
Lawrence Tynes (NYG) 0.5%
Devin McCourty (NE) 0.5%
Danny Woodhead (NE) 0.4%
Chad Ochocinco (NE) 0.3%
Jake Ballard (NYG) 0.3%
Stephen Gostkowski (NE) 0.3%
Stephen Hoyer (NE) 0.2%

Note: This simulation assumed that Gronkowski is at 90% because of a high ankle sprain. If he's 100% healthy, his chance to win the MVP will be higher than Wes Welker's.

I'm amused by the 1-in-500 chance that Brady gets injured and Hoyer leads the Pats to their 4th Super Bowl victory.

I'm a bit surprised that Julian Edelman didn't make the list, as the only guy that's playing on offense, defense and special teams. He could conceivably get a receiving TD, a return TD, and a "Pick 6".

Related article: Football Mogul Predicts Super Bowl XLVI

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