Viewing Head-to-Head Stats (Baseball Mogul)

When I posted some news last week about Baseball Mogul Diamond, one of the responses was a request to add "hitter/pitcher results vs. each pitcher/hitter and hitter/pitcher results vs. each team".

As it turns out, we've been tracking player-vs-player and player-vs-team results since 2007. So here's some info in case you didn't know how to access this feature:

1. On the charts tab in the Scouting Report, click on the gray box that shows what is currently being displayed (batting average, 2 outs, etc.) and you will get a dialog box that lets you choose vs-player or vs-team:

2. Stats by each team's lineup versus the other team's pitchers are shown at game start (when selecting a starter or adjusting the lineup). For example, this screen shot shows a player comparing the career performance of two pitchers against the Yankees:

3. During game play, head-to-head stats are shown under the batter's scouting report.

Baseball Mogul Diamond

Last week, I promised some news about Baseball Mogul to our newsletter subscribers. I haven't been able to pull together any screenshots, but I can let you know about some new developments, with more information to come over the next 3 months.

We're changing the name, sort of.

In early 1998, we launched a game called Baseball Mogul 99 (instead of the more accurate "Baseball Mogul 98"). This numbering scheme was chosen by our publisher, and matched other sports games, but it has since led to confusion because "Baseball Mogul 2015" includes rosters for 2014, with player stats through 2013.

So, the next version, including stats through the 2014 season, will not be called Baseball Mogul 2016. It will be called Baseball Mogul Diamond. The logic behind the name "diamond" is that we have four notable areas of new features:

(1B) Free Agent Compensation

Baseball Mogul Diamond includes up-to-date rules and regulations for free agent compensation, matching those set out by the most recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

Free Agent Compensation
When teams lose players to free agency (after giving that player a "qualifying offer") they are entitled to additional picks in next amateur draft as compensation.

Many of you don't want these roster rules to slow down game play or make it more complicated. So, we have added a new "Roster Rules" dialog that lets you customize this feature.

(2B) Improved Aging Model

This includes many small changes, but the most visible is the fact that players now move "down the defensive spectrum" as they age. Bill James first defined the defensive spectrum in the 1980s, creating a list of positions from the least difficult (on the left) to the most difficult (on the right):

The best offensive players are usually found closer to the left side of the spectrum. (Note that before about 1930, 3B was actually between CF and SS).

As players age, they tend to move from the more difficult defensive positions (on the right) to the least difficult (on the left). For example:

• Rod Carew played 2B until age 29, then moved to 1B.
• Craig Biggio was drafted as a catcher, but moved to 2B at age 24 and moved the outfield at age 36.
• David Ortiz started his career at 1B, then slowly shifted from being a DH in about 15% of his games to starting at DH 97% of the time.
• etc.

(3B) New General Manager AI (Artificial Intelligence)

We're rewriting the general manager AI so that computer-controlled teams draft, sign, re-sign, release and trade players more realistically. The "Tradezilla" engine had some flaws that needed to be fixed, and the AI had other weaknesses. For example, it was common for a team to sign (or trade for) a star player, only to let him rot on the bench because the team already had a great player at that position. Teams also have serious problems with cash and salary management, among other things.

So ... the new roster rules described above required that we create much more comprehensive GM AI, and has also allowed us to fix existing problems. As many of you have noted, the addition of the roster rules solved some of the problems for us. For example, free agent compensation tends to help small market teams stay competitive with the big boys.

(Home) Improved User Experience

Okay. There are many smaller improvements, so I just lumped them into "improved user experience".

We've improved end-of-season contract negotiations by making it easy to skip a player and come back to him later. We also show you how much payroll you have in expiring contracts, to make it easier to stay within your budget.

You can now view player projections (not to be confused with "predicted stats") on the Leaders Page and in the Sortable Stats Dialog.

Pitcher usage has been adjusted (yet again) to not only match recent trends by managers, but to ensure accuracy in all historical eras. We have also added more adjustable parameters, in case you want to tweak the simulation results to your liking.

And of course we are continuing to respond to your bug reports and suggestions in our forums.

Thank you for continued support and feedback, and please stay tuned for more info!

I Miss You, Jonas Gray

As a Patriots fan, I loved watching Jonas Gray overpower the Colts in Indianapolis. On Sunday, Gray become the first running back since the Great Depression to rush for as many touchdowns as the rest of the league combined.

However, as a Patriots fan, I already miss Jonas Gray. That's because I know that he won't be here for long. Unlike Tom Brady, he's not going to retire in a Patriot's uniform. Bill Belichick doesn't keep running backs around for long (unless he can use them in the passing game, like Shane Vereen or Kevin Faulk).

Remember LeGarrette Blount? Of course you do. He also ran for four touchdowns in one game, also against the Colts. In the playoffs! Two months later he signed with the Steelers.

Belichick feels, perhaps correctly, that today's running game is about power blocking and play-calling, not about star running backs. This means that he can pick Jonas Gray off the scrap heap and turn him into a star. Belichick also knows that running backs get old fast. Put these two facts together and it means that we probably won't be seeing Jonas Gray in a Patriots uniform next year.

Jonas, I miss you already!

"Failed Fielder's Choice"

Looking for some feedback on official scoring. Imagine the following:

Play #1:
No outs. Lorenzo Cain on 1B. Eric Hosmer batting.
Jed Lowrie fields a ground ball in the hole and appears to have enough time to get Hosmer out at 1B.
Instead, Lowrie throws to 2B to successfully force out the lead runner.

The above is a "fielder's choice". Section 10.00 of the MLB rules is pretty clear about how the above situation is scored.

Play #2:
No outs. Lorenzo Cain on 1B. Eric Hosmer batting.
Jed Lowrie fields a ground ball in the hole and appears to have enough time to get Hosmer out at 1B.
Instead, Lowrie throws to 2B in an attempt to keep the runner out of scoring position. But the throw is late and everybody is safe.

I often refer to this as a "failed fielder's choice" to avoid confusion with the result of Play #1.

Play #2 is also a fielder's choice because Section 2.00 states: "FIELDER'S CHOICE is the act of a fielder who handles a fair grounder and, instead of throwing to first base to put out the batter-runner, throws to another base in an attempt to put out a preceding runner."

It also can't be recorded as a hit. Rule 10.05(b)(4): "The official scorer shall not credit a base hit when a ... fielder fails in an attempt to put out a preceding runner and, in the scorer's judgment, the batter-runner could have been put out at first base"

Therefore, I believe the following to be true:

1) The shortstop is NOT charged with an error.
2) The batter is credited with an at-bat.
3) The batter is NOT credited with a hit.
4) The pitcher is credited with a batter faced (and an "opponent at bat", such as for calculating "opponent batting average").
5) The pitcher is not credited with a "hit allowed".
6) The pitcher IS credited with a "ground ball out" (as used in the calculation of "GO/AO").

(I realize some of these aren't official stats, but I'm hoping to find some agreement about non-official stats.)

However, imagine the following:

Play #3:
No outs. Bases empty. Jeff Samardzija walks Lorenzo Cain.
Fernando Abad relieves Samardzija.
Eric Hosmer batting.
Jed Lowrie fields a ground ball in the hole and appears to have enough time to get Hosmer out at 1B.
Lowrie throws to 2B in an attempt to keep the runner out of scoring position. But the throw is late and everybody is safe.
Billy Butler hits a 3-run homer.

My interpretation:
Cain is charged to Samardzija as an earned run.
Hosmer and Butler are charged to Abad as earned runs.
(If Cain had been successfully forced out, Hosmer would be charged to Samardzija.)

So ... Abad gets credit for a ground out, and then gets tagged with an earned run for the guy who "grounded out".

Is this correct?

Thanks!

Clay

Football Mogul 15: Player Photos

FYI, here's a sneak peak at the new player photos in Football Mogul 15 (available September 5th).

Last year we had about 800 photos. This year we have 1,425.

Football Mogul 15 Launches September 5th

Football Mogul 15 will go on sale at SportsMogul.com on September 5th, the day after the start of the NFL season.

Leading up to the release, here's an example of the new Scouting Report:

The big change in this year's version is a switch from a stat-based simulation engine to one based on ratings. For example, in the past, you could pretty much only compare receivers according to their "Receiving" rating -- which was based primarily on projected Receiving Yards for the upcoming season.

This year, we have 26 different ratings for each player, with the ability to edit the ratings directly (instead of trying to get the desired results by editing stats).

Fixing the NBA Draft (Revisited)

On May 20th, almost three million people tuned in to watch the NBA Draft Lottery. That's right -- more people watched this year's NBA Draft Lottery than have attended Miami Heat games since they signed LeBron James.

The draft lottery consists of twelve ping-pong balls getting pulled from a spinning plastic drum. But the really pathetic thing is that we don't even get to see the balls bounce around. The ping-pong balls are drawn off-camera, and then the results are put in an envelope. And then three million Americans turn on their TV to watch the envelopes get opened.

It's like bingo, but worse. It's like waiting for your grandmother to go play bingo. Then, when she gets home, asking her what happened. As an American, that makes me sad. We have nothing better to do than watch a TV show that reveals, second-hand, the results of "Bingo For Billionaires".

The good news is that we can fix it. We don't have to allocate draft picks like a church pastor calling out bingo numbers. As we first proposed back in 2007, we can replace the NBA Draft Lottery with the NBA Draft Tournament.

The NBA Draft Tournament

Instead of putting all 14 non-playoff teams into a big bucket and playing bingo, we put all 14 teams into a single-elimination tournament bracket. All the excitement of March Madness, but with the future of your favorite NBA team resting in the balance.

Here's how it works:

1) Divide the 14 non-playoff teams into two brackets containing 7 teams each (one bracket for each conference).

2) In each bracket, the teams with the most regular-season wins play each other in a 1-game playoff. The loser goes home and the winner advances to play the team with the next best regular-season record.

3) Continue until you have one winner from each conference. These two teams play head-to-head in a "Championship Game" for the #1 pick.

4) Award the remaining picks according to how far each team advanced in the NBA Draft Tournament.

For example, these are what the brackets would have been for the 2014 NBA Draft Tournament:

	Western Conference		Eastern Conference
Game #1	Phoenix Suns (48-34) at Minnesota Timberwolves (40-42)	Game #2	New York Knicks (37-45) at Cleveland Cavaliers (33-49)
Game #3	Winner of Game #1 (above) at   Denver Nuggets (36-46)	Game #4	Winner of Game #2 (above) at Detroit Pistons (29-53)
Game #5	Winner of Game #3 (above) at  New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)	Game #6	Winner of Game #4 (above) at Boston Celtics (25-57)
Game #7	Winner of Game #5 (above) at  Sacramento Kings (28-54)	Game #8	Winner of Game #6 (above) at Orlando Magic (23-59)
Game #9	Winner of Game #7 (above) at Los Angeles Lakers (27-55)	Game #10	Winner of Game #8 (above) at Philadelphia 76ers (19-63)
Game #11	Winner of Game #9 (above) at  Utah Jazz (25-57)	Game #12	Winner of Game #10 (above) at Milwaukee Bucks (15-67)

Championship Game

Winner of Game #11 vs. Winner of Game #12

But Is It "Fair"?

This tournament model has the advantage of maintaining the "integrity" of current system. In other words, the worst teams still have the best chance to earn the #1 pick. But they actually have to earn it -- on the basketball court.

This table shows the chance of each team getting the #1 pick using this tournament format, compared to the chance currently given to them by the NBA in the lottery:

(Unlike our previous analysis, we are using each team's regular-season winning percentage to determine their strength in the tournament.)

Lottery	Tournament	Western Conference	Eastern Conference	Tournament	Lottery
0.5%	0.8%	Suns (48-34)	Knicks (37-45)	0.9%	0.7%
0.6%	1.1%	Timberwolves (40-42)	Cavaliers (33-49)	1.4%	1.7%
0.8%	1.7%	Nuggets (36-46)	Pistons (29-53)	2.2%	2.8%
1.1%	2.9%	Pelicans (33-49)	Celtics (25-57)	4.2%	10.3%
4.3%	5.4%	Kings (28-54)	Magic (23-59)	7.9%	15.6%
6.3%	12.7%	Lakers (27-55)	76ers (19-63)	15.6%	19.9%
10.4%	19.3%	Jazz (25-57)	Bucks (15-67)	22.4%	25.0%

The End of Tanking?

Because the tournament requires that you win at least two consecutive games in order to win the #1 pick, you still have to put a decent team on the court. A bad record gives you a better position in the tournament, but you still need a team good enough to win.

For example, the Bucks never won two consecutive games in the entire season. Yet they would be required to go two-for-two in the NBA Draft Tournament to secure the #1 pick.

DICE: Defensive Independent Component ERA

I'm reposting an article from July 2000, because Baseball Mogul players keep asking me what 'DICE' stands for on the pitcher Scouting Report (and because the text in the original article is tiny and hard to read).

Defense Independent Component ERA July 19, 2000 If you play Baseball Mogul, you have already encountered Defense Independent Component ERA ("DICE"), even though you don't realize it. This is because the artificial intelligence in Baseball Mogul uses DICE to evaluate pitching talent. We also use it at Sports Mogul to create our annual player projections. DICE starts with the concept of "Component ERA" invented by Bill James. The concept is pretty simple -- use the components of a pitcher's statistical performance (such as hits allowed and hit batters) to predict a pitcher's ERA. Because there is a strong correlation between these individual events and the pitcher's ERA, you can actually estimate a pitcher's ERA in a season by just looking at the components. In other words, you can predict earned runs allowed by looking at the individual events (such as walks and home runs) that led to the runs themselves. ERA is a somewhat luck-based stat. One season is a relatively small sample size, and earned runs given up in one season may not be a true indicator of the pitcher's overall ability level. The pitcher might have given up several home runs with the bases loaded, causing his ERA to be higher than it would have been if the home runs had been distributed randomly throughout the season. By deriving a value from hits, walks, hit batters and home runs, Component ERA attempts to be a better evaluator of a pitcher's true ability to prevent runs. Here is James' formula for Component ERA (CERA): CERA=(((H+BB+HBP)*(.89*(1.255*H+2.745*HR)+.56*(BB+HBP-IBB)))/(BFP*IP))*9-.56 But there are a few problems with CERA: The biggest is that it includes hits. Hits aren't a great indicator of a pitcher's true pitching ability. With the exception of home runs, the number of hits allowed by any pitcher are largely affected by the quality of the defense behind him. This makes sense, but it also stands up to statistical analysis. A pitcher's Strikeout Ratio (strikeouts pitched per 9 innings) is relatively consistent from year to year. However, a pitcher's Hit-Out Ratio (ratio of hits to outs, after removing strikeouts and homeruns) doesn't have the same consistency. The second problem I have with CERA is that it's tough to calculate. Although they aren't perfect, I like measures such as Slugging Percentage and Total Average with formulae that are pretty easy to remember. So, I created a slightly different form of Component ERA called "Defensive Independent Component ERA" (or DICE) that uses the variables in Component ERA, but removes hits (but leaves in Home Runs -- because these are almost never affected by defense). At first, it looked something like this: DICE = x + (y*(BB + HBP) + z*HR) / IP Using all active pitchers in 1999 with 500 or more career Innings Pitched, I performed a regression on the above function to determine the constants x, y and z such that DICE best predicted their career average ERA. (There were 229 pitchers in this data set). But after some experimenting, I noticed that ERAs were also strongly correlated with strikeouts, even when the other stats (walks, hit batters, and home runs) were already taken into account. As strikeouts are also defense-independent, it makes sense to add them to the formula. This is somewhat counter-intuitive. After all, a ground out can be just as good as a strikeout to end an inning. But the regression doesn't lie -- strikeouts are more effective than other types of outs at reducing earned runs. Or more accurately, strikeout numbers are useful in predicting a pitcher's ERA. So I added strikeouts to the formula and performed another regression to determine the correct coefficients to use in the formula. Finally, I found the integer coefficients that best matched the data (because integers make the math easier than that required for CERA): DICE = 3 + (3*(BB + HBP) + 13*HR - 2*K) / IP (The Mean Squared Error for this formula, across all 229 pitchers, is .100697. The Square Root of the Mean Squared Error is about .317 -- meaning that about 2/3 of all actual ERA values should fall with .317 runs of a pitchers DICE value) So there you have it: 1. Start with a value of 3 times the number of walks and hit batters 2. Add 13 for every home run allowed 3. Subtract 2 for every strikeout 4. Divide this total by the number of innings pitched 5. Finally, add this result to 3.00 to get the pitcher's Defense-Independent Component ERA (aka DICE). Here's an example using Roger Clemens 1998 season (his most recent Cy Young Award): DICE = 3.00 + (3 * (68 BB + 7 HB) + 13 * 9 HR - 2 * 292 K) / 264 IP = 2.14 Roger's actual ERA in 1998 was 2.05 Anyway, I first developed this stat to help me predict how a pitcher would perform in my rotisserie league. DICE is a better predictor of a pitcher's ERA in the upcoming year than any other stat I could find (such as his previous year's actual ERA). Using these predictions, I was able to win the league for 4 years out of 6 (and I'm currently in 1st place in year 7). And of course DICE is one of many tools we use inside the Baseball Mogul game engine.

Creating an Expansion Team (Baseball Mogul)

This year's version of Baseball Mogul has a new feature: the ability to create a new expansion team and build it from players on current teams, using the current MLB rules for conducting expansion drafts.

When you choose "Expansion" on the New Game Dialog (above), there is a new button in the lower right with a question mark on it:

Clicking this button takes you to the Create Expansion Team dialog, where you select the city for your expansion team, and specify a team name, stadium name and division.

Note: The team name automatically includes your city name. For example, the above team will be called the "Las Vegas Dealers". You can use the League Editor to change this later (such as to the "Nevada Dealers").

After you click "Play", Baseball Mogul will automatically create a 2nd expansion team to ensure that there are an even number of teams. The computer analyzes the current city data and picks a city at random from among the best options.

Is it fair to assume that the "Oregon Cavemen" play in "GEICO Park"?

Baseball Mogul then hands you control of your team, at the beginning of the expansion draft.

Each of the existing teams is allowed to protect 15 players in the first round of the expansion draft, and 3 additional players in each additional round (and players drafted in the last 3 seasons, such as Manny Machado, do not need to be protected). For example, in the following list of third basemen, we see that the Yankees left A-Rod unprotected, because they would love an expansion team to take his contract off their hands:

At any point, you can use the Play Menu to let the computer complete the expansion draft for you. And, after the expansion draft is complete, you can still grab unsigned players to fill out your major-league and minor-league rosters.

Baseball Mogul 2015 Pre-Order

We are now accepting pre-orders for Baseball Mogul 2015, which will go on sale on April 11th.

This pre-order option is limited to only 20 customers, and can be locked down by pledging $25 at the Kickstarter campaign for Masters of the Gridiron.

I admit that it's weird to use Kickstarter for Baseball Mogul, a product that is now in it's 17th version. We have always wanted to allow pre-orders of Baseball Mogul through our normal ordering system, but we aren't allowed to process a payment unless we immediately ship the product.

So, here we are, selling Baseball Mogul 2015 on Kickstarter at a whopping 28% discount, and you won't even be billed until after the Kickstarter campaign ends.

(Note also that we have added an option to pre-order both Baseball Mogul 2015 and Masters of Gridiron for $47, including free shipping inside the United States).

Making The Pro Bowl Matter

If the NFL wants to boost ratings for the Pro Bowl, they need to make it count for something.

NFL fans are serious. They will show up in sub-zero weather to root for a last-place team. But they won't bother to turn on the TV for an exhibition game that doesn't have any effect on the actual season.

The solution: Give the top draft picks to the conference that wins the Pro Bowl.

Won-Loss records would still be used to rank teams within each conference. But the Pro Bowl winner is guaranteed to get the #1 pick.

For example, this is the current draft order for the 2014 NFL draft:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
2	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	18	New York Jets (AFC)
3	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	19	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
4	Cleveland Browns (NFC)	20	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
5	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	21	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
6	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	22	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	23	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
8	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	24	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
9	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	25	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
10	Detroit Lions (NFC)	26	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
11	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	27	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
12	New York Giants (NFC)	28	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
13	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	29	New England Patriots (AFC)
14	Chicago Bears (NFC)	30	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
15	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	31	Denver Broncos (AFC)
16	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

If this rule had been in place, and the AFC had won, this would be the resulting draft order:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
2	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	18	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
3	Cleveland Browns (AFC)	19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
4	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	20	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
5	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	21	Detroit Lions (NFC)
6	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	22	New York Giants (NFC)
7	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	23	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
8	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	24	Chicago Bears (NFC)
9	New York Jets (AFC)	25	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
10	Miami Dolphins (AFC)	26	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
11	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)	27	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
12	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)	28	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
13	San Diego Chargers (AFC)	29	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
14	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)	30	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
15	New England Patriots (AFC)	31	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
16	Denver Broncos (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

And this would be the draft order if the NFC had won:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	17	Houston Texans (AFC)
2	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	18	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	19	Cleveland Browns (AFC)
4	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	20	Oakland Raiders (AFC)
5	Detroit Lions (NFC)	21	Buffalo Bills (AFC)
6	New York Giants (NFC)	22	Tennessee Titans (AFC)
7	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	23	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
8	Chicago Bears (NFC)	24	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
9	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)	25	New York Jets (AFC)
10	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)	26	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
11	Green Bay Packers (NFC)	27	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
12	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)	28	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
13	New Orleans Saints (NFC)	29	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
14	Carolina Panthers (NFC)	30	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
15	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)	31	New England Patriots (AFC)
16	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)	32	Denver Broncos (AFC)

This has the additional advantage of eliminating worries about teams "tanking". There's no point in intentionally losing games to get the #1 pick if you might drop to pick #17 after the Pro Bowl.

But, unlike some other other anti-tanking ideas, this system continues to give better picks to weaker teams, to help create parity.

Seahawks Win Super Bowl, 23-13!

We just simulated Super Bowl XLVIII using Football Mogul 2014. We just played the game once, (instead of simulating the entire season 100 times, like we did back in September).

The result?

Seahawks win 23-13!

Highlights:

1. Marshawn Lynch is the Player Of The Game, rushing for 135 yards in 26 attempts (5.2 yards per rush), and scoring both Seattle touchdowns.

2. The Seattle defense holds Knowshon Moreno to 31 yards in 10 rushing attempts.

3. Peyton Manning struggles against the Seattle secondary, putting up mediocre numbers. He has 24 completions in 39 attempt for 270 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

4. In the middle of the first quarter, Seattle's punt team pins the Broncos inside their own 10 and the Seahawk defense forces a 3-and-out.

5. Starting their next drive at their own 47, Russell Wilson completes two passes to Golden Tate and rushes for 5 yards. This isn't enough for a touchdown, but it gets Hauschka within field goal range to put the Seahawks up 3-0.

6. Richard Sherman picks off Peyton Manning in the 2nd quarter (on a pass attempt to Demaryius Thomas).

7. The Seahawks capitalize on the interception, as Lynch goes "beast mode" with a 48-yard touchdown run (Seahawks lead 10-0).

8. After forcing the Broncos to punt in the next possession, Seattle marches down the field and goes up 17-0 with a 2-yard pass from Wilson to Lynch.

9. Denver finally gets on the scoreboard (via a Matt Prater field goal) with 5 seconds left in the first half.

10. Percy Harvin starts the 3rd quarter with a 68-yard kickoff return! The Broncos defense holds, but Hauschka kicks another field goal to put the Seahawks up 20-3.

11. Peyton responds by marching his team down the field, capped off by a 7-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas. Broncos pull within two scores. (Seahawks lead 20-10).

12. In their next possession, Seattle holds the ball for more than 7 minutes as Marshawn Lynch racks up more rushing yards. Hauschka kicks the field goal to put the Seahawks up 23-13.

13. Peyton's last chance comes with 1:53 left in the 4th quarter. He has brought his team down to Seattle's 3-yard line, but the Seahawks secondary stops consecutive pass plays on both 3rd down and 4th down.

14. Seattle takes over on downs and runs out the clock.

Here's the box score: http://www.sportsmogul.com/football/Super-Bowl-48-Box.htm

And the play-by-play: http://www.sportsmogul.com/football/Super-Bowl-48-Recap.htm

P.S. You can get a download copy of Football Mogul 2014 if you pledge just $5 to Masters of the Gridiron on Kickstarter.