Sunday, March 25, 2012

Baseball Mogul 2013 Preview: Win Expectancy

Another new feature for Baseball Mogul 2013 is that all the game logs now show Win Expectancy after each play.

Win Expectancy is the chance that a team has of winning the game, based on the inning, score, outs and runners on base. In the case of the Baseball Mogul game recaps, the Win Expectancy for the home team is shown after each play.

Here's an example from the 9th inning of a game I just played in Play-By-Play mode:


At the top of this screen shot, the home team (Washington) is leading the game 4-3, at the start of the 9th inning. In this situation in the current run-scoring environment, this gives the home team an 87.2% chance to win the game.

Then the Washington pitcher walks the leadoff man (Sanchez), dropping their win chance by 9.6% (to 77.6%).

When John Buck doubles down the right field line, the game is tied and the Marlins have the go-ahead run on second base. The biggest play of the inning is when Jose Reyes singles with two outs to knocks in the (eventual) winning run. By the end of the inning, the Marlins are ahead 5-4 and the Nationals chance of winning the game has dropped to 17.4%.

In the bottom of the 9th, Washington's chances just get worse. The leadoff hitter (Marrero) strikes out, dropping their win chance below 10%.

At the end of the game, their chance to win has dropped to 0.0%. (This is self-evident, but it shows that the math adds up).

12 comments:

Unknown said...

Is the percentage from the perspective of the player's team? Or is it always from the perspective of the home team?

Clay said...

It shows the percentage for the home team, which I believe is the same convention FanGraphs.com uses.

Unknown said...

That works for me. As long as it's consistent, I can live with it.

Fig said...

Clay, all of the changes look amazing! I can't wait until I can download 2013! Thanks for posting. Take care -Fig

Anonymous said...

Will the Win Expectancy only be shown in the game recap or will it also be shown during the simulation? Just curious, because after a blown game I REALLY don't want to be reminded how close we were to winning! :-) Is this a feature that can be turned off?

Anyways, great work on the improvements thus far. Can't wait to get my hands on a new copy. :-)

~~Roberto

Anonymous said...

I don't understand the pitch count.

What is the 1--1 on the second base steal that is then followed by a 1-0 when third is stolen??

Please explain.

Clay said...

The '1-1' is a display bug I've already fixed. It actually isn't trying to show 1-and-1. It's trying to show '1-and-negative-1', as '-1' is the value in that function for an empty data field.

Nice catch.

jonnymo said...

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I've been wishing for this ever since B-R started showing the WP for each play in their boxscores.

Jim Plowman said...

Clay first let me say, I absolutely enjoy your game and cannot wait for this to come out tomorrow. I do have a question concerning the screen shot shown here as Leo Nunez and not his real name which was found to be Juan Oviedo, was this due to the simulation being from the 2011 season? Will the new season have these updated names? Thank you.

Anonymous said...

I'd be more interested in seeing players have realistic ratings or giving us the ability to adjust those ratings.

Anonymous said...

When will the Baseball Mogul 2013 Demo Be out

Nathan said...

Clay, were you ever able to discover the glitch that caused the Farm System rating to be forever a 'D' on the harder levels, regardless of how much money was invested by a team? Also, have any other players noticed this?