Predictions At The Halfway Point

As of today, the average Major League team has played exactly 81 games. We are officially at the halfway point. For about an hour last night, the Tampa Bay Rays had the best record in baseball! Are they for real? What about the Cubs, White Sox and other division leaders?

Using Baseball Mogul 2009, we updated our database to reflect current records and injuries, and we simulated the second half of the season one thousand times.
Here are our predictions. 'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.

Copyright Sports Mogul Inc.

AL EAST	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
Boston	95	67	--	22.8%
Tampa Bay	92	70	3	12.6%
New York	90	72	5	4.3%
Toronto	80	82	15	0.4%
Baltimore	74	88	21	0.0%

The Red Sox will probably win the division, and have a good chance at repeating as World Champions. But the Rays should keep it close, and the Yankees will probably play well in the 2nd half, even with Wang on the DL.

AL CENTRAL	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
Chicago	84	78	--	1.9%
Minnesota	84	78	--	1.7%
Detroit	82	80	2.0	1.5%
Cleveland	78	84	6.0	0.3%
Kansas City	73	89	11.0	0.0%

The tightest division in baseball. Even the Royals have an outside chance to win the division.

AL WEST	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
Los Angeles	91	71	--	5.1%
Oakland	85	77	6.0	0.8%
Texas	76	86	15.0	0.1%
Seattle	71	89	20.0	0.0%

The Angels should be able to stay atop the AL West. It looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for another year.

NL EAST	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
New York	89	73	--	14.1%
Philadelphia	87	75	2.0	7.8%
Atlanta	82	80	7.0	1.1%
Florida	73	89	16.0	0.0%
Washington	66	96	23.0	0.0%

The Mets have a good team, even with Pedro injured and near the end of his career. They should be able to pull ahead of the Phillies and undo last year's collapse.

NL CENTRAL	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
Chicago	90	72	--	8.4%
Milwaukee	86	76	4.0	1.4%
St. Louis	86	76	4.0	1.3%
Pittsburgh	77	87	13.0	0.1%
Houston	76	86	14.0	0.0%
Cincinnati	75	87	15.0	0.0%

With 7 teams projected for between 86 and 90 wins, the National League should have a very tight and very exciting playoff race -- including a Wild Card that goes down to the wire.

NL WEST	Won	Lost	GB	WC%
Arizona	88	74	--	10.3%
Los Angeles	86	76	2.0	3.5%
Colorado	72	90	16.0	0.0%
San Diego	71	91	17.0	0.0%
San Francisco	70	92	18.0	0.0%

The Rockies won't repeat as NL Champs. But the Dodgers and Diamondbacks each have a decent shot at making it back to the World Series.