Using Baseball Mogul 2009, we updated our database to reflect current records and injuries, and we simulated the second half of the season one thousand times.
Here are our predictions. 'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.
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The Red Sox will probably win the division, and have a good chance at repeating as World Champions. But the Rays should keep it close, and the Yankees will probably play well in the 2nd half, even with Wang on the DL.
The tightest division in baseball. Even the Royals have an outside chance to win the division.
The Angels should be able to stay atop the AL West. It looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for another year.
The Mets have a good team, even with Pedro injured and near the end of his career. They should be able to pull ahead of the Phillies and undo last year's collapse.
With 7 teams projected for between 86 and 90 wins, the National League should have a very tight and very exciting playoff race -- including a Wild Card that goes down to the wire.
The Rockies won't repeat as NL Champs. But the Dodgers and Diamondbacks each have a decent shot at making it back to the World Series.