Football Mogul Predicts the 2013 Season

Predictions by Football Mogul 2014 for the upcoming season (100 seasons simulated):

AFC East Record New England Patriots 12-4 Miami Dolphins 8-8 New York Jets 6-10 Buffalo Bills 5-11		NFC East Record Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 New York Giants 8-8 Dallas Cowboys 8-8 Washington Redskins 6-10
AFC North Record Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 Baltimore Ravens 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 Cleveland Browns 5-11		NFC North Record Green Bay Packers 10-6 Detroit Lions 9-7 Chicago Bears 8-8 Minnesota Vikings 8-8
AFC South Record Indianapolis Colts 11-5 Houston Texans 9-7 Tennessee Titans 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13		NFC South Record New Orleans Saints 11-5 Carolina Panthers 10-6 Atlanta Falcons 6-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
AFC West Record Denver Broncos 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 San Diego Chargers 7-9 Oakland Raiders 3-13		NFC West Record Seattle Seahawks 13-3 San Francisco 49ers 12-4 St. Louis Rams 7-9 Arizona Cardinals 5-11

A Note On Tackles

"Tackles" have been an official stat since 2001, but there is still some confusion about what the term means. For example, CBS Sports and NFL.com both show Luke Kuechly with 164 Tackles in 2012. But Pro-Football-Reference only gives him 103 tackles.

Luke Kuechly had 103 "tackles" last year. Or did he?

This is because CBS and the NFL are adding together "Solo Tackles" and "Assisted Tackles", but Pro-Football-Reference is only counting "Solo Tackles" (with a column next to it for "Assisted Tackles").

ESPN adds more confusion. Instead of a column called "tackles", they have a column called COMB (for "combined") and one called TOTAL. This doesn't clarify anything, because "total" and "combined" are essentially synonyms, both meaning to "add up".

(This convention even confuses ESPN's own writers. Their Fantasy Projection for Kuechly mentions "200 total tackles" when it is clear that what they really mean, according to their own nomenclature, is "200 combined tackles".)

So... for Football Mogul, we are sticking to the NFL's official definition:

[A tackle is] recorded when a defensive player makes contact with an offensive player, forcing him to go to the ground. Tackles can be recorded as either "solo tackles" or "assisted tackles".

In other words, "tackles" includes both "solo tackles" and "assisted tackles". For every tackle that occurs in the simulation, Football Mogul either awards a "solo tackle" to one defensive player, or an "assisted tackle" to each of two different players.

Football Mogul 2014 Sneak Peak

Football Mogul 2014 will be released on Wednesday, September 4th.

Leading up to that launch, here's a quick look at the updated Scouting Report in the game:

Kickstarter and Feature Creep

Kickstarter

An example of feature creep (by James Provost)

The current buzz in game dev circles is about the Double Fine Adventure launched on Kickstarter 18 months ago.

To make a long story short:
1) Development team goes on Kickstarter to raise $400K
2) No stretch goals were specified.
3) They raised more than $3.3 million.
4) Nine months after the "Estimated delivery" date, there is no game.
5) Uproar has ensued.

Baseball Mogul 2014: New Feature Descriptions

Although this repeats some of the information posted earlier this month, this is the description of new features that is being included in the help files for Baseball Mogul 2014:

Major League Equivalencies

Baseball Mogul automatically analyzes each player's career (at all levels, including major league and minor league stats) and converts them to "Major League Equivalencies", projecting how each player will perform in the upcoming season. For example, a .300 batting average with the Pawtucket Red Sox might translate to a .273 batting average at the major league level. Real-life minor league stats (see below) are adjusted for level of play and park factors.

Baseball Mogul 2014: Minor League Park Factors

Park factors used for calculating 2013 Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for minor league and major league players included in Baseball Mogul 2014. (.pdf version)

Five-year park factors generated using 2008-2012 minor league player data.

California League (Class A Advanced)

Team	State	Farm System	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	R
Bakersfield Blaze	CA	CIN	0.98	1.00	0.93	1.05	1.03	0.99	0.98
High Desert Mavericks	CA	SEA	1.05	1.03	0.85	1.23	1.03	0.94	1.13
Inland Empire 66ers	CA	LAA	0.98	0.96	1.15	0.79	0.99	1.03	0.93
Lake Elsinore Storm	CA	SD	0.96	1.01	1.13	0.84	1.02	0.97	0.95
Lancaster JetHawks	CA	HOU	1.08	1.04	0.91	1.21	1.01	0.96	1.14
Modesto Nuts	CA	COL	1.00	1.06	1.26	0.80	0.99	0.99	0.97
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	CA	LAD	0.99	0.99	1.02	0.96	0.97	0.99	0.96
San Jose Giants	CA	SF	0.94	0.97	1.04	0.87	0.97	1.08	0.89
Stockton Ports	CA	OAK	0.98	0.95	0.71	1.22	1.02	1.04	1.00
Visalia Rawhide	CA	ARI	1.03	1.04	0.88	1.19	1.01	0.98	1.06

Baseball Mogul 2014

Baseball Mogul 2014 launches March 22nd!

It's official. Baseball Mogul 2014 will go on sale on March 25th.

As you would expect, we have made the following updates for the 2013 season:

• The real 2013 schedule.
• Updated stats through 2012.
• Updated rosters.
• New league format for 2013 (it's so weird seeing Houston in the AL West).

We also have some great new features to appeal to everyone from the pitch-by-pitch player to the stat geek to the front-office genius. These are the most noteworthy:

• Real minor league stats (more than 1 million lines of data, going back to the 1880s).
• Lefty-righty batting and pitching stats for every season going back to 1951.
• New animations, correctly reflecting team uniforms and player skin colors.
• Completely reworked General Manager AI, mimicking real-life trade and contract data.
• New scouting and player rating system.
• Individual strategy settings for each player, including pitch count limits.

We've also been busy with many smaller improvements and fixing bugs (including this one, this one, this one, this one, and this one, as just a few examples).

Time to get back to work. Thanks for reading!