This weekend, we will see the third post-season matchup between Tom Brady's New England Patriots and Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts. As my fellow New Englanders know, the Patriots have won the previous two games. At least some of the credit for these two wins was given to Belichick for "outcoaching" Tony Dungy in both meetings. But when the Pats and Colts played in Foxboro during the regular season this year, it looked like Dungy was doing the "outcoaching".
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Fixing the NBA Draft
I watched the NBA Draft Lottery last night.
I didn't watch the NBA Draft. I watched the NBA Draft Lottery.
The Lottery could be more exciting than it is. They start with twelve ping-pong balls in a spinning plastic drum. But we don't get to see the balls bounce around. The balls are drawn off-camera, and then the results are put in an envelope. And then millions of Americans turn on their TV to watch the envelopes get opened. Live! :)
It's like bingo, but worse. It's like waiting for your grandmother to go play bingo. Then, when she gets home, asking her what happened. As an American, that makes me sad. We have nothing better to do than watch a TV show that reveals -- second-hand -- the results of "Bingo For Billionaires".
The good news is that we can fix it. We don't have to allocate draft picks like a church pastor calling out bingo numbers. We can replace the NBA Draft Lottery with an NBA Draft Tournament.
Here's how it works:
1) Divide the 14 non-playoff teams into two brackets containing 7 teams each (one bracket for each conference).
2) In each bracket, the teams with the most regular-season wins play each other in a 1-game playoff. The loser goes home and the winner advances to play the next team (ranked by regular-season wins).
3) Continue until you have one winner from each conference. These two teams play head-to-head in a "Championship Game" for the #1 pick.
4) Award the remaining picks according to how far each team advanced in the NBA Draft Tournament.
For example, these are what the brackets would have been for the 2007 NBA Draft Tournament:
The team with the worst record (the Grizzlies) has to win 2 games in a row to win the tournament. If each game is a coin flip. this gives them a 1-in-4 chance. This is exactly equal to the 25% chance they have with the current ping-pong ball system.
I didn't watch the NBA Draft. I watched the NBA Draft Lottery.
The Lottery could be more exciting than it is. They start with twelve ping-pong balls in a spinning plastic drum. But we don't get to see the balls bounce around. The balls are drawn off-camera, and then the results are put in an envelope. And then millions of Americans turn on their TV to watch the envelopes get opened. Live! :)
It's like bingo, but worse. It's like waiting for your grandmother to go play bingo. Then, when she gets home, asking her what happened. As an American, that makes me sad. We have nothing better to do than watch a TV show that reveals -- second-hand -- the results of "Bingo For Billionaires".
The good news is that we can fix it. We don't have to allocate draft picks like a church pastor calling out bingo numbers. We can replace the NBA Draft Lottery with an NBA Draft Tournament.
The NBA Draft Tournament
Instead of putting all 14 non-playoff teams into a big bucket and playing bingo, we put all 14 teams into a single-elimination tournament bracket. We get all the excitement of the NCAA Tournament (aka "March Madness") but with the your team's top draft pick resting in the balance.Here's how it works:
1) Divide the 14 non-playoff teams into two brackets containing 7 teams each (one bracket for each conference).
2) In each bracket, the teams with the most regular-season wins play each other in a 1-game playoff. The loser goes home and the winner advances to play the next team (ranked by regular-season wins).
3) Continue until you have one winner from each conference. These two teams play head-to-head in a "Championship Game" for the #1 pick.
4) Award the remaining picks according to how far each team advanced in the NBA Draft Tournament.
For example, these are what the brackets would have been for the 2007 NBA Draft Tournament:
| Western Conference | Eastern Conference | ||
Game #1
| Los Angeles Clippers (48-34) at Golden State Warriors (40-42) |
Game #2
| Indiana Pacers (35-47) at Philadelphia 76ers (35-47) |
Game #3
| Winner of Game #1 (above) at Sacramento Kings (33-49) |
Game #4
| Winner of Game #2 (above) at Carlotte Bobcats (33-49) |
Game #5
| Winner of Game #3 (above) at Portland Trail Blazers (32-50) |
Game #6
| Winner of Game #4 (above) at New York Knicks (33-49) |
Game #7
| Winner of Game #5 (above) at Minnesota Timberwolves (32-50) |
Game #8
| Winner of Game #6 (above) at Atlanta Hawks (30-52) |
Game #9
| Winner of Game #7 (above) at Seattle SuperSonics (31-51) |
Game #10
| Winner of Game #8 (above) at Milwaukee Bucks (28-54) |
Game #11
| Winner of Game #9 (above) at Memphis Grizzlies (22-60) |
Game #12
| Winner of Game #10 (above) at Boston Celtics (24-58) |
Championship Game
|
Winner of Game #11
vs.
Winner of Game #12
|
But Is It "Fair"?
This tournament model has the advantage of maintaining the "integrity" of current system. In other words, the worst teams still have the best chance to earn the #1 pick. But they actually have to earn it -- on the basketball court.
The team with the worst record (the Grizzlies) has to win 2 games in a row to win the tournament. If each game is a coin flip. this gives them a 1-in-4 chance. This is exactly equal to the 25% chance they have with the current ping-pong ball system.
The team with the 3rd-worst record (the Bucks) would have to win 3 games in a row to win the tournament. This is about a 1-in-8 chance (12.5%). Their chance under the current system: 15.6%.
At the other end, we have the Pacers, with the best record in the Eastern Conference among those hat missed the playoffs. Indiana would to win 7 games in a row. Assuming each contest is evenly matched, that gives them a 1-in-128 chance (about 0.8%). This is just a bit better than their odds under the current lottery system (0.7%).
We fix this by scheduling the Draft Tournament during the scheduled off-days, with two games each night, leading up to a "final four" weekend:
At the other end, we have the Pacers, with the best record in the Eastern Conference among those hat missed the playoffs. Indiana would to win 7 games in a row. Assuming each contest is evenly matched, that gives them a 1-in-128 chance (about 0.8%). This is just a bit better than their odds under the current lottery system (0.7%).
Scheduling
Another problem is that the NBA Playoffs get more boring with each round. Well, more accurately, playoff games get more sparse with each round. The gap between the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals is about 4 days. And then we stretch one series over two weeks in June. This year we ended the year with 15 games spread over 26 days.We fix this by scheduling the Draft Tournament during the scheduled off-days, with two games each night, leading up to a "final four" weekend:
- June 3rd (Sunday): Game #1 and Game #2
- June 5th (Tuesday): Game #3 and Game #4
- June 8th (Friday): Game #5 and Game #6
- June 11th (Monday): Game #7 and Game #8
- June 13th (Wednesday): Game #9 and Game #10
- June 16th (Saturday): Game #11 and Game #12 (the semi-finals)
- June 18th (Monday): Championship Game
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Fixing Overtime In The NFL
Every year there's a clamor to "fix" overtime in the NFL. The complaint is that the results of a crucial game (especially a playoff game) can often be "decided by a coin flip".
The most popular idea is to adopt something like the NCAA, where each team is guaranteed a chance to score. I've also heard the idea to get rid of "sudden death" and play overtime periods until one team ends the game with the lead, much like in the NBA. I've even heard that field goals should be outlawed in overtime.
All of these ideas are horrible.
Monday, January 16, 2006
How To Turn Anything Into An Incomplete Pass
Here's the rule I've learned after years of instant replay in the NFL:
By throwing that red flag, you can turn ANYTHING into an incomplete pass.
Brady fumbles. Belichick goes to his sock and pulls out the challenge flag. Incomplete pass.
Polamalu intercepts. Dungy grasps at straws desperately. Incomplete pass.
I've seen this happen more than once. The two examples I just mentioned are the most absurd. But completions and interceptions get overruled all the time for one simple reason. Using today's NFL rules, a complete pass frequently LOOKS like an incomplete pass when viewed in slow motion.
Shift everything down to 1/8 speed and the refs see the tiniest movements of the ball in the receiver's hands. They say he was "bobbling it" and never established control. A perfectly good completion in real-time can look like a turbulent froth of primordial ooze when viewed under the microscope.
I play ultimate frisbee whenever I can. It's a lot like football in that your job is to catch the "ball" before it hits the ground. It's a classic American game of of "People vs. Gravity". Like the NFL, some ultimate players make some AMAZING catches: laying out for a disc that's about to hit the grass or go out of bounds. These feats of athleticism should be rewarded, regardless of weather the disc grazed a blade of grass as the player was finishing his catch.
For the NFL, I say "loosen up the completion rules". If it looks like a completion in real-time, it probably was a completion. Give these guys credit for the outstanding plays they are making, and play on!
By throwing that red flag, you can turn ANYTHING into an incomplete pass.
Brady fumbles. Belichick goes to his sock and pulls out the challenge flag. Incomplete pass.
Polamalu intercepts. Dungy grasps at straws desperately. Incomplete pass.
I've seen this happen more than once. The two examples I just mentioned are the most absurd. But completions and interceptions get overruled all the time for one simple reason. Using today's NFL rules, a complete pass frequently LOOKS like an incomplete pass when viewed in slow motion.
Shift everything down to 1/8 speed and the refs see the tiniest movements of the ball in the receiver's hands. They say he was "bobbling it" and never established control. A perfectly good completion in real-time can look like a turbulent froth of primordial ooze when viewed under the microscope.
I play ultimate frisbee whenever I can. It's a lot like football in that your job is to catch the "ball" before it hits the ground. It's a classic American game of of "People vs. Gravity". Like the NFL, some ultimate players make some AMAZING catches: laying out for a disc that's about to hit the grass or go out of bounds. These feats of athleticism should be rewarded, regardless of weather the disc grazed a blade of grass as the player was finishing his catch.
For the NFL, I say "loosen up the completion rules". If it looks like a completion in real-time, it probably was a completion. Give these guys credit for the outstanding plays they are making, and play on!
Friday, November 25, 2005
Will The Real Guillermo Mota Please Stand Up?
By now we all know that Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett are headed to the Red Sox in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and Harvey Garcia. But it was just announced the Red Sox insisted that Guillermo Mota be added to the deal, in exchange for even more players from Boston's farm system.
Mota is an interesting commodity. In 2003, and part of 2004, all with the Dodgers, he had an ERA near 2.00. Since being traded to the Marlines in mid-2004, his ERA has ballooned to 4.74.
So the question is, who is the real Guillermo Mota? The dominating setup man that helped the 2004 Dodgers win the N.L. West? Or the struggling reliever who was relegated to a reduced workload in the 2005 Marlins bullpen.
Mota is an interesting commodity. In 2003, and part of 2004, all with the Dodgers, he had an ERA near 2.00. Since being traded to the Marlines in mid-2004, his ERA has ballooned to 4.74.
So the question is, who is the real Guillermo Mota? The dominating setup man that helped the 2004 Dodgers win the N.L. West? Or the struggling reliever who was relegated to a reduced workload in the 2005 Marlins bullpen.
Thursday, August 11, 2005
Tuesday, May 3, 2005
The Maddux Gambit
In chess, a gambit is the sacrifice of material (such as a pawn) in order to gain another type of advantage in the game (such as a positional advantage). This strategy can also be used in sports such as football or baseball, where a player or coach may sacrifice something on one play (sometimes even allowing one or more points or runs to score) in order to gain another kind of advantage.
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