Making The Pro Bowl Matter

If the NFL wants to boost ratings for the Pro Bowl, they need to make it count for something.

NFL fans are serious. They will show up in sub-zero weather to root for a last-place team. But they won't bother to turn on the TV for an exhibition game that doesn't have any effect on the actual season.

The solution: Give the top draft picks to the conference that wins the Pro Bowl.

Won-Loss records would still be used to rank teams within each conference. But the Pro Bowl winner is guaranteed to get the #1 pick.

For example, this is the current draft order for the 2014 NFL draft:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
2	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	18	New York Jets (AFC)
3	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	19	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
4	Cleveland Browns (NFC)	20	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
5	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	21	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
6	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	22	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	23	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
8	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	24	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
9	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	25	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
10	Detroit Lions (NFC)	26	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
11	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	27	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
12	New York Giants (NFC)	28	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
13	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	29	New England Patriots (AFC)
14	Chicago Bears (NFC)	30	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
15	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	31	Denver Broncos (AFC)
16	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

If this rule had been in place, and the AFC had won, this would be the resulting draft order:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	Houston Texans (AFC)	17	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
2	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)	18	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)
3	Cleveland Browns (AFC)	19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
4	Oakland Raiders (AFC)	20	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)
5	Buffalo Bills (AFC)	21	Detroit Lions (NFC)
6	Tennessee Titans (AFC)	22	New York Giants (NFC)
7	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)	23	St. Louis Rams (NFC)
8	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)	24	Chicago Bears (NFC)
9	New York Jets (AFC)	25	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)
10	Miami Dolphins (AFC)	26	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)
11	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)	27	Green Bay Packers (NFC)
12	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)	28	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
13	San Diego Chargers (AFC)	29	New Orleans Saints (NFC)
14	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)	30	Carolina Panthers (NFC)
15	New England Patriots (AFC)	31	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)
16	Denver Broncos (AFC)	32	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

And this would be the draft order if the NFC had won:

Pick #	Team	Pick #	Team
1	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	17	Houston Texans (AFC)
2	Atlanta Falcons (NFC)	18	Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)	19	Cleveland Browns (AFC)
4	Minnesota Vikings (NFC)	20	Oakland Raiders (AFC)
5	Detroit Lions (NFC)	21	Buffalo Bills (AFC)
6	New York Giants (NFC)	22	Tennessee Titans (AFC)
7	St. Louis Rams (NFC)	23	Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)
8	Chicago Bears (NFC)	24	Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
9	Dallas Cowboys (NFC)	25	New York Jets (AFC)
10	Arizona Cardinals (NFC)	26	Miami Dolphins (AFC)
11	Green Bay Packers (NFC)	27	Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)
12	Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)	28	Cincinnati Bengals (AFC)
13	New Orleans Saints (NFC)	29	San Diego Chargers (AFC)
14	Carolina Panthers (NFC)	30	Indianapolis Colts (AFC)
15	San Francisco 49ers (NFC)	31	New England Patriots (AFC)
16	Seattle Seahawks (NFC)	32	Denver Broncos (AFC)

This has the additional advantage of eliminating worries about teams "tanking". There's no point in intentionally losing games to get the #1 pick if you might drop to pick #17 after the Pro Bowl.

But, unlike some other other anti-tanking ideas, this system continues to give better picks to weaker teams, to help create parity.

Seahawks Win Super Bowl, 23-13!

We just simulated Super Bowl XLVIII using Football Mogul 2014. We just played the game once, (instead of simulating the entire season 100 times, like we did back in September).

The result?

Seahawks win 23-13!

Highlights:

1. Marshawn Lynch is the Player Of The Game, rushing for 135 yards in 26 attempts (5.2 yards per rush), and scoring both Seattle touchdowns.

2. The Seattle defense holds Knowshon Moreno to 31 yards in 10 rushing attempts.

3. Peyton Manning struggles against the Seattle secondary, putting up mediocre numbers. He has 24 completions in 39 attempt for 270 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

4. In the middle of the first quarter, Seattle's punt team pins the Broncos inside their own 10 and the Seahawk defense forces a 3-and-out.

5. Starting their next drive at their own 47, Russell Wilson completes two passes to Golden Tate and rushes for 5 yards. This isn't enough for a touchdown, but it gets Hauschka within field goal range to put the Seahawks up 3-0.

6. Richard Sherman picks off Peyton Manning in the 2nd quarter (on a pass attempt to Demaryius Thomas).

7. The Seahawks capitalize on the interception, as Lynch goes "beast mode" with a 48-yard touchdown run (Seahawks lead 10-0).

8. After forcing the Broncos to punt in the next possession, Seattle marches down the field and goes up 17-0 with a 2-yard pass from Wilson to Lynch.

9. Denver finally gets on the scoreboard (via a Matt Prater field goal) with 5 seconds left in the first half.

10. Percy Harvin starts the 3rd quarter with a 68-yard kickoff return! The Broncos defense holds, but Hauschka kicks another field goal to put the Seahawks up 20-3.

11. Peyton responds by marching his team down the field, capped off by a 7-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas. Broncos pull within two scores. (Seahawks lead 20-10).

12. In their next possession, Seattle holds the ball for more than 7 minutes as Marshawn Lynch racks up more rushing yards. Hauschka kicks the field goal to put the Seahawks up 23-13.

13. Peyton's last chance comes with 1:53 left in the 4th quarter. He has brought his team down to Seattle's 3-yard line, but the Seahawks secondary stops consecutive pass plays on both 3rd down and 4th down.

14. Seattle takes over on downs and runs out the clock.

Here's the box score: http://www.sportsmogul.com/football/Super-Bowl-48-Box.htm

And the play-by-play: http://www.sportsmogul.com/football/Super-Bowl-48-Recap.htm

P.S. You can get a download copy of Football Mogul 2014 if you pledge just $5 to Masters of the Gridiron on Kickstarter.

Adjusting Rookie Talent Levels (Football Mogul)

Football Mogul 2014 has a new feature that lets you adjust the talent level, the talent distribution, and the improvement potential for each of the 15 position types in the game.

This is implemented by the addition of a file called DraftTalent.txt, located in the same folder with FB2K14.exe. If you have trouble finding this folder, you can choose "Open Game Folder" from the Help Menu.

DraftTalent.txt includes instructions, but I will include them again here for convenience.

The first 15 lines of DraftTalent.txt look like this:

  0,  0, 0, // QUARTERBACK
  0,  0, 0, // RUNNING_BACK
-30,  0, 50, // FULLBACK
-50,  0, 0, // TIGHT_END
-10,  0, 0, // WIDE_RECEIVER
 30,  0, 0, // TACKLE
 50,  0, 0, // GUARD
 70,  0, 0, // CENTER
-40,  0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_END
-60,  0, 0, // DEFENSIVE_TACKLE
-30,  0, 0, // LINEBACKER
  0,  0, 0, // CORNERBACK
  0,  0, 0, // SAFETY
  0,  0, 0, // KICKER
  0,  0, 0, // PUNTER

Each line refers to a position (shown at the end of the line, after the '//'). Football Mogul actually ignores all text after '//'. The position names are only there so humans know which line refers to which position. What Football Mogul does care about is the line order. The first line will always modify QB talent, then next line is for RBs, then FBs, and so on.

For each position:
First number = base talent level
Second number = talent level variation
Third number = "potential" (i.e. the difference between "Overall" and "Peak")

The default value is 0. A positive number indicates an increase. A negative number indicates a decrease.

Example #1: Your amateur draft has 10 QBs with the following Overall/Peak talent levels:
60/70, 63/73, 65/75, 67/77, 69/79, 70/80, 71/81, 73/83, 75/85, 77/87, 80/90

Increasing the first number will increase the entire talent pool, as in this example:
65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 74/84, 75/85, 76/86, 78/88, 80/90, 82/92, 85/95

Increasing the second number will increase the talent level variation (while the average remains the same):
55/65, 59/69, 62/72, 65/75, 68/78, 70/80, 72/82, 75/85, 78/88, 81/91, 85/95

Increasing the third number will increase the amount that each player improves after the draft:
60/75, 63/78, 65/80, 67/82, 69/84, 70/85, 71/86, 73/88, 75/90, 77/92, 80/95

For overall talent level, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* equals a 1-point change in the "Overall" rating.
For talent level variation, changing a 0 to 10 *roughly* increases the distance between the worst and best player by 1.

Note that college players are generated for the draft at the end of each regular season (i.e. at the start of the playoffs). So, in order to see your changes to DraftTalent.txt reflected in the game, you will need to make any edits (and save the new file) before the first playoff game.

Pre-Season Power Rankings (by Football Mogul 2014)

Teams are listed by division; rankings are for the entire NFL (out of 32 teams).

Note that Power Rankings may differ from predicted record, because projected standings were determined by simulating the actual 2013 NFL schedule.

For example, the Patriots are projected to win more games than the Broncos, despite having a lower Power Rank, because the Patriots play in a much weaker division.

AFC Teams Power Rank New England Patriots 4 Miami Dolphins 21 New York Jets 29 Buffalo Bills 30		NFC Teams Power Rank Philadelphia Eagles 9 Dallas Cowboys 14 New York Giants 15 Washington Redskins 24
AFC North Power Rank Cincinnati Bengals 8 Baltimore Ravens 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 25		NFC North Power Rank Green Bay Packers 6 Detroit Lions 16 Chicago Bears 20 Minnesota Vikings 22
AFC South Power Rank Indianapolis Colts 7 Houston Texans 12 Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 31		NFC South Power Rank New Orleans Saints 5 Carolina Panthers 11 Atlanta Falcons 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
AFC West Power Rank Denver Broncos 2 Kansas City Chiefs 13 San Diego Chargers 28 Oakland Raiders 32		NFC West Power Rank Seattle Seahawks 1 San Francisco 49ers 3 Arizona Cardinals 18 St. Louis Rams 26

Football Mogul Predicts the 2013 Season

Predictions by Football Mogul 2014 for the upcoming season (100 seasons simulated):

AFC East Record New England Patriots 12-4 Miami Dolphins 8-8 New York Jets 6-10 Buffalo Bills 5-11		NFC East Record Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 New York Giants 8-8 Dallas Cowboys 8-8 Washington Redskins 6-10
AFC North Record Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 Baltimore Ravens 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 Cleveland Browns 5-11		NFC North Record Green Bay Packers 10-6 Detroit Lions 9-7 Chicago Bears 8-8 Minnesota Vikings 8-8
AFC South Record Indianapolis Colts 11-5 Houston Texans 9-7 Tennessee Titans 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13		NFC South Record New Orleans Saints 11-5 Carolina Panthers 10-6 Atlanta Falcons 6-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
AFC West Record Denver Broncos 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 San Diego Chargers 7-9 Oakland Raiders 3-13		NFC West Record Seattle Seahawks 13-3 San Francisco 49ers 12-4 St. Louis Rams 7-9 Arizona Cardinals 5-11

A Note On Tackles

"Tackles" have been an official stat since 2001, but there is still some confusion about what the term means. For example, CBS Sports and NFL.com both show Luke Kuechly with 164 Tackles in 2012. But Pro-Football-Reference only gives him 103 tackles.

Luke Kuechly had 103 "tackles" last year. Or did he?

This is because CBS and the NFL are adding together "Solo Tackles" and "Assisted Tackles", but Pro-Football-Reference is only counting "Solo Tackles" (with a column next to it for "Assisted Tackles").

ESPN adds more confusion. Instead of a column called "tackles", they have a column called COMB (for "combined") and one called TOTAL. This doesn't clarify anything, because "total" and "combined" are essentially synonyms, both meaning to "add up".

(This convention even confuses ESPN's own writers. Their Fantasy Projection for Kuechly mentions "200 total tackles" when it is clear that what they really mean, according to their own nomenclature, is "200 combined tackles".)

So... for Football Mogul, we are sticking to the NFL's official definition:

[A tackle is] recorded when a defensive player makes contact with an offensive player, forcing him to go to the ground. Tackles can be recorded as either "solo tackles" or "assisted tackles".

In other words, "tackles" includes both "solo tackles" and "assisted tackles". For every tackle that occurs in the simulation, Football Mogul either awards a "solo tackle" to one defensive player, or an "assisted tackle" to each of two different players.

Football Mogul 2014 Sneak Peak

Football Mogul 2014 will be released on Wednesday, September 4th.

Leading up to that launch, here's a quick look at the updated Scouting Report in the game: