Baseball Mogul 2013: Under The Hood, Part 2

For years, people have been asking for direct access to the Baseball Mogul database. Many of them want to be able to build mods that read and parse the data.

For example, Mizerak created a very cool app called the Box Score Parser that sifted through multiple seasons of box scores in order to derive data that can be easily viewed inside Baseball Mogul. Unfortunately, he had to use box scores because they were one of the only things saved in a human-readable form.

Baseball Mogul 2013: Under The Hood, Part 1

When I first wrote Baseball Mogul, it simulated each game by simulating the result of each plate appearance. This isn't unusual. This is how Strat-O-Matic works. This is how other computer games work. This is even the method I used when writing my very first baseball simulation, using paper and dice, back in 1976.

But the thing is, baseball isn't played with paper and dice. It's played inside televisions. And the game on television isn't determined by comparing player stats and generating a random number. It's determined pitch-by-pitch. Each pitch has a velocity, a spin direction (and magnitude), and the location where it crosses the plate.

Photo by Wall Street Journal

So, for Baseball Mogul 2013, I rewrote the entire simulation engine to calculate:

1. The velocity and path of each pitch (similar to that recorded by PITCHf/x).
2. The timing and velocity of the bat swing.
3. The plane of the bat swing (and the location of its sweet spot).
4. The angle and velocity of the hit that results from the above.

When Zombies Attack ... Morons

The Walking Dead is dumb. The premise is dumb. The writing is dumb. And the characters are especially dumb.

Worst Call In Super Bowl History

Photo by Ed Yourdon

I realize that it's hyberbolic to call today's safety call the worst in 46 Super Bowls. But somebody needs to do it. Right now, there are thousands of people out there Googling "worst super bowl call ever", and they need to be able to find something.

Super Bowl MVP Predictions

Photo by Keith Allison

As mentioned on Sunday, we used Football Mogul to predicts the results of Super Bowl XLVI by simulating the game 100,000 times. We also recorded the MVP of each game.

Odds are that it will go to a quarterback. But there's a 48.7% chance of someone else taking home the MVP trophy.

Football Mogul Predicts Super Bowl XLVI

It's that time of year again. Another Super Bowl between the Giants and Pats. To predict the result, we used Football Mogul to simulate the game 100,000 times.

Note: this year's version of Football Mogul is 100% free. No time limits. No strings attached. Please download it. :)

Bottom line: Pats have a 60.78% chance of winning. The most likely score is 31-27.

Here are the average results for each team:

The NFL's "Worst" Pass Defenses

In tonight's 45-7 drubbing of the Broncos by the Patriots, I have to admit that the 2nd half was pretty boring.

Here's what I did see that was interesting:

CBS put up a graphic showing that the best teams in the NFL this year also had the worst pass defenses. This wasn't the first time I had seen this stat trotted out as "proof" that the Packers, Saints and Pats have horrible pass defenses.

Team	Won	Lost	Pass Yards Allowed Per Game	NFL Rank
Green Bay Packers	15	1	301.2	32nd
New England Patriots	13	3	283.0	31st
New Orleans Saints	11	5	266.7	30th

Well ... duh.